000
AGXX40 KNHC 270759 CCA
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
359 AM EDT SAT APR 27 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO... 
MODEL PREFERENCE: NO MODEL PREFERENCE THROUGH DAY 3...THEN
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE BLEND WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS TO
THE CENTRAL GULF. A QUASI-STATIONARY INVERTED TROUGH WAS ANALYZED
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BUOY AND ASCAT DATA INDICATE LIGHT TO
MDOERATE E TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR WINDS TO 20 KT
OVER THE SE GULF...S OF THE RIDGE. SEAS ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT
OVERALL OVER MOST OF THE GULF. A 0338 UTC JASON PASS INDICATED
SEAS TO 4 FT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH 20 KT WINDS. GIVEN
THE WIND SPEED THERE AND THE EASTERN DIRECTION AGAINST THE FLORIDA
CURRENT...EXPECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
NOTED ATTM. MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
SUN...WITH A TRAILING FRONT STALLING AND DISSIPATING N OF THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A FAIRLY PRES PATTERN IN
PLACE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS. THE CHANGE UP WILL
BEGIN TOWARD MID WEEK AS A MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. WHILE ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS FAVOR A MID LEVEL CUTOFF
LOW FORMING OVER SE TEXAS/SW LOUISIANA BY TUE...THERE REMAIN
DIFFERENCES IN INTENISTY AND POSITION. GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A GENERAL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH
LITTLE CHANGE AT THE SURFACE. LOOKING AHEAD...TIMING REMAINS
FAIRLY CLOSE ON ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE TEXAS COAST EARLY
THU. THE MODEL CONSENSUS ADVERTIZES THIS NEXT FRONT AS FAIRLY
STRONG GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...AND WINDS TO GALE FORCE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT OVER THE WESTERN GULF THU INTO FRI.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...
MODEL PREFERENCE: NO MODEL PREFERENCE FOR TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE MAIN PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED ACROSS THE BASIN WITH RIDGING
DOMINANTING N OF THE AREA PROMOTING GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY
BREEZES PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF REGION...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG NE
BREEZE ALONG EASTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. A 0138 ASCAT PASS
INDICATED 20 KT NE WINDS S OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...LIKELY
RELATED TO A TROUGH ANALYZED THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE. SIMILARLY THE
TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS PROMOTING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS IN THE LEE OF CENTRAL CUBA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH DAMPENS OUT TODAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS WINDS TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE MAINTAINING
TRADES FARTHER SOUTH. NE SWELL IS PENETRATING THROUGH THE PASSAGES
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND WILL ALLOW LONG FINGERS OF SEAS
TO 7 FT TOWARD THE COAST OF VENEZUELA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL AND TROUGHING OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO WILL SUPPORT FRESH E TO SE FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF
HONDURAS BY MID WEEK. PRECIPITPABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH OVER THE TROP N ATLC S OF 13N...LIKELY RELATED TO A LOW
LATITUDE PERTUBATION MOVING INTO THE GUIANAS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N70W TO 20N68W. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH WILL LIFT NE AHEAD OF RIDGING BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE
CAROLINAS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION DAMPENS OUT. OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 22N THROUGH
MID WEEK...WITH THE UKMET SLIGHTLY STRONGER. EASTERNMOST
LONGITUDES EXPECTED TO FEEL LARGE LONG PERIOD NE-E SWELL EFFECT
LATE IN PERIOD PROMPTED BY MAJOR ATLC LOW PRES WELL E OF BASIN.
MOST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.