000 AGXX40 KNHC 250653 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 253 AM EDT THU APR 25 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR 27N92W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 26N95W TO THE SW GULF. LATEST OBSERVATIONS DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS S OF 25N W OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WITH SEAS 3-5 FT PREVAIL W OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WITH SEAS 3-5 FT PREVAIL S OF 23N E OF THE FRONT WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT PREVAIL N OF 23N E OF THE FRONT. LATEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDING PUSH FOR THE FRONT HAS LIFTED OUT. WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT LIFTING OUT...THE FRONT WILL STALL EARLY TODAY...AND WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...WITH A RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE WHILE SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SEAS 6-7 FT PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. LATEST MODEL RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH MON. AS A RESULT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE LONG PERIOD NE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL PROPAGATE SW AND REACH THE NE PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THIS MORNING. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SW ACROSS THE AREA...AND BY SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING THE SWELL WILL COVER THE ENTIRE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE SWELL WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. SEAS WILL PEAK NEAR 11 FT OVER THE NE PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SAT BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE. THE SWELL WILL START TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT FROM N-S STARTING SUN NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE E PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG 68/69W. LATEST OBSERVATIONS DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE FAR E PART OF THE AREA AND ALSO W OF THE BAHAMAS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE OVER THE AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 2-4 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE E OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND NEAR 66W/67W EARLY FRI...REACHING THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY SAT...AND SHIFTING E OF THE AREA SUN. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE FAR NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REACH TO NEAR 31N70W TO NE FLORIDA BY FRI WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE LATE FRI. HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MON. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.