000 AGXX40 KNHC 241902 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 302 PM EDT WED APR 24 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED INTO THE NW GULF THIS EXTENDING FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA SW TO INLAND NE MEXICO AS HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE U.S ERN SEABOARD STRETCHES SW TO OVER THE ERN GULF. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN...AND ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT FROM 22N TO 26N E OF 90W...AND 3-4 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR RECENTLY RAISED SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN THE FAR WRN GULF W OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE NOTED ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. LATEST GRIDDED WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT IN THE FAR W PART BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE SEAS HAVE SPIKED UP TO 9 FT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. WILL BUMP SEAS ABOUT 2-3 FT FOR THAT PART OF THE WRN GULF FOR TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THU...OTHERWISE WILL FOLLOW GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOR THIS FORECAST. LATEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING FORECAST FORECAST THROUGH DAY 5 (MON). THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS E ACROSS THE GULF...PROVIDES PRACTICALLY NO SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT TO REMAIN A STEADY COLD FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING IT MOVES E OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI. BASED ON THESE CIRCUMSTANCES WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO COLD FRONT POSNS IN THE NEAR TERM AND BASICALLY MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WILL FORECAST THE FRONT TO REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO INLAND NE MEXICO BY EARLY THIS EVENING...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR 26N95W TO THE SW GULF THU WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SW ACROSS THE ERN PORTION...AND CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT ASCAT PASSES FROM 1322 UTC AND 1502 UTC THIS MORNING GENERALLY SHOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES THROUGHOUT. BOTH BUOY DATA AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS ARE SHOWING THE SAME KIND OF WINDS. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SEAS NOW LOWERED TO 5-7 FT RANGE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...4-6 FT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 2-3 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS LATEST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND WILL REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE ERN ATLC STORM/FRONTAL SYSTEM NE OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HELP USHER LARGE LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS INTO THE NE PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY EARLY FRI. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCES SUGGEST THAT THESE SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE SW AND ALSO IMPACT THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TO NEAR 13 FT...FOLLOWING THE GRIDDED WAVEWATCH AND ECMWF WAVE GUIDANCE...OVER THE FAR NE ZONE OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FRI NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 FT SUN AND TO 9 FT MON AS THEY SPREAD S. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC...COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY LATE SAT. SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT FROM N-S SUN AND SUN EVENING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY WITH COLD FRONT WEAKENING THE PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N69W TO NEAR 25N72W. A TROUGH IS NEAR 70W S OF THE FRONT TO JUST N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. HIGH PRES IS PRESENT TO THE E OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1458 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED NE WINDS OF 15 KT WITHIN ABOUT 200 NM W OF THE FRONT...AND LIGHTER NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT AND E-SE WINDS OF 5-10 KT E OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH. LATEST BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE E OF THE BAHAMAS AND OVER A PORTION OF THE N/CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 78W...AND 3-5 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH TONIGHT...AND SLOWLY MOVE E OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ALONG 67W/68W EARLY THU...NEAR 66W/67W EARLY FRI...AND REACH THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY SAT...AND SHIFT E OF THE AREA SUN. THE AFOREMENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR COLD FRONT ABOUT TO ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE FAR NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THU AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT JUST ABOUT NIL...THE FRONT WILL BARELY REACH TO NEAR 31N70W TO NE FLORIDA BY FRI AS IT DISSIPATES LATE FRI OR EVENING UNDER STRONG HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS SE OVER THE NW WATERS. THIS HIGH PRES AREA WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MON. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.