000 AGXX40 KNHC 232214 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT TUE APR 23 2013 CORRECTED WARNINGS SECTION AND OTHER FORMATTING MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE ANALYSES FROM BOTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN DISPLAYING HIGH PRES AS PRESENTLY BEING THE ONLY SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MEAN RIDGE EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM THE CAROLINAS SSW TO 26N92W. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST ASCAT...BUOY...OIL RIG PLATFORM SITES AND CMAN OBSERVATIONS. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN...AND ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT E OF 91W...AND ABOUT 3-4 FT W OF 91W. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE FAR NW PORTION WHERE LOWER SEA HEIGHTS OF 2-3 FT ARE NOTED. THE 12 UTC RUN OF THE GRIDDED NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS REPRESENTABLE OF CURRENT OBSERVED CONDITIONS ...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF AREA FROM ABOUT 25N TO 27N AND BETWEEN 88W AND 90W WHERE COMBINED MAX SEAS ARE UP TO 5 FT. THE 00 UTC ECMWF WAVES IS SIMILAR WITH IT ALSO BEING SLIGHTLY UNDONE WITH SEAS IN THAT SAME AREA. WILL KEEP THIS IN CONSIDERATION FOR THROUGH FIRST 12 HRS OF THE FORECAST...BUT IN GENERAL WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARDS THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS UPCOMING FORECAST. THE FORECAST WILL VARY VERY LITTLE FROM RECENT ONES AS MODELS ARE DIFFERING LITTLE WITH RESPECT TO UPCOMING VARIATIONS IN WINDS AND SEA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF IN THE SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM PERIODS. THIS WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH WED AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...PUSHES ESE TOWARDS THE NW GULF COASTAL PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TAP TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW GULF EARLY ON WED. ONCE THE FRONT ENTERS THE GULF ...IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS E ACROSS THE GULF...PROVIDING PRACTICALLY NO SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT TO REMAIN A STEADY COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES EWD. WILL FORECAST THE FRONT TO REACH A POSN FROM SE LOUISIANA TO INLAND NE MEXICO BY EARLY WED EVENING...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR 26N95W AND S INTO THE SW GULF THU WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY INTO FRI. MOISTURE PROGS DEPICT THAT VERY LITTLE...OF ANY...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FRI OVER THE WEAK STATIONARY AS IT DISSIPATES. BNDRY LAYER WINDS FROM THE 12 UTC GFS...12 UTC UKMET AND ECMWF AND EVEN FROM THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL BRIEFLY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY WED MORNING ALONG THE SRN TEXAS COAST WITH LIGHTER NE WINDS OF MAINLY 15-20 KT ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR THAT SAME COAST. WINDS THERE WINDS THEN DROP OFF QUICKLY DURING WED...TO THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT N-NE IN DIRECTION N OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY THU...THEN VEER AROUND TO THE NE-E OVER THE ERN AND CNTRL GULF FRI...AND TO THE E-SE ACROSS THE WRN GULF WITH LITTLE CHANGES THROUGH SAT. AS FOR SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT...STILL IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SEAS WILL INCREASE TOO MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT MOST SEAS WILL TOP OFF AT AROUND 6 OR 7 FT IN THE FAR WRN GULF WATERS NEAR THE SRN TEXAS COAST EARLY WED. HOWEVER...A MAX OF 8 FT JUST W OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST MAY BRIEFLY BE POSSIBLE. AFTER WED MORNING...AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD EXPECT SEAS TO BE IN THE RANGES OF 3-5 FT MOST ZONES WITH LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE NE AND FAR SRN PORTIONS AS HIGH PRES ALONG THE U.S. E COAST BUILDS AGAIN SW ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... WITH THE WEAKENING OF HIGH PRES ACROSS THE ATLC TRADES THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS EVIDENCED BY ASCAT PASSES FROM 1342 UTC THIS MORNING ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS. THE DATA SHOWED NE 15 KT WINDS N OF ABOUT 13N E OF 80W...NE 10 KT WINDS W OF 80W AND E WINDS OF 10 KT S OF 13N. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY LITTLE THROUGH WED NIGHT. THEN AS HIGH PRES FROM THE U.S. E COAST BUILDS E ACROSS THE ATLC THROUGH SAT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE PRES GRADIENT CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE NE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND ALSO IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THE BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW RELATIVELY LOW SEA THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN WITH MAX SEAS ONLY UP TO 6 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR 2-3 FT W OF 79W. THE NE SWELLS UP TO 9 FT NOTED FOR DAYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING AS BUOY 41044 AT 22N59W PRESENTLY HAS COMBINED SEAS OF 7 FT. SEAS OVER THIS AREA SHOULD SUBSIDE TO SIMILAR VALUES OR TO 6 FT THU AND FRI. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCES HAVE BEE VERY PERSISTENT IN DEPICTING A NEW SET OF LARGE NE LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL BE HEADING TOWARDS THE NE TROPICAL N ATLC ON FRI. THIS NEW BATCH OF SWELLS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD S AND SW TO THE NE PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC DURING FRI. THE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BUMP SEAS TO THE 10-14 FT RANGE BY SAT RESULTING IN A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THOSE PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. SEAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE N OF ABOUT 13N...AND 4-6 FT S OF 13N FRI THROUGH SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N72W TO THE NW BAHAMAS...WHILE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS S TO JUST N OF ERN CUBA. HIGH PRES IS OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1338 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR SE PORTION...AND LIGHTER E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT OVER MOST OF THE WRN PORTION...WITH E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL WATERS E OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH. OBSERVED SEAS ARE GENERALLY 6-7 FT OVER THE FAR SRN WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS AND 6-8 FT IN THE NE PART DUE TO RESIDUAL NE SWELLS. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE 5-6 FT...EXCEPT 3-5 FT W OF THE AND SUBSIDING SEAS OF 6-8 FT DUE TO A DISSIPATING NE SWELL. THE FRONT/TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE E OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH FORECAST POSN OF 69W/70W BY EARLY WED...68W/69W BY EARLY THU...67W/68W BY EARLY FRI...AND TO THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY SAT BEFORE IT DAMPENS OUT AS HIGH PRES FROM THE U.S. E COAST BUILDS ESE ACROSS THE WRN PORTION...AND OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL PORTION FRI AND SAT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...THE AFOREMENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION THU...AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N74W TO NE FLORIDA BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE FRI EVENING AND INTO SAT AS IT IS ALSO OVERTAKEN BY THE SAME HIGH PRES AREA THAT WEAKENS THE ABOVE DESCRIBED TROUGH. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://PREVIEW.WEATHER.GOV/MARINE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE