000 AGXX40 KNHC 220659 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT SUN APR 21 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. GULF OF MEXICO... THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS DISSIPATED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS LINGERING. THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS 2-4 FT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND 3-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF PREVAILING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FURTHER DECREASE THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SE UNITED STATES THROUGH WED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS. THE FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WED. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND HOW FAR INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THE FRONT WILL MOVE. THE GFS IS BRINGING THE FRONT INTO THE NW GULF WATERS TUE AND STALLING THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS WERE PUSHING THE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER FRONT WHICH WILL NOT MAKE IT AS FAR INTO THE GULF WATERS. WILL FAVOR THE GFS THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS IT HAS BEEN THE MOST PERSISTENT IN ITS LATEST MODEL RUNS...AND THE OTHER MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... WITH A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE N OF THE AREA REMAINS WEAK...PROVIDING FOR A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ARE IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE. SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE 5-7 FT WHILE 2-4 FT SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA REMAINING WEAK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THU. A SET OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE THU INTO FRI...WITH SEAS REACHING NEAR 11 FT BY LATE FRI NIGHT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF THE FORECAST AREA W OF THE TROUGH WHILE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA N OF 29N WITH SEAS REACHING 11 FT. OTHERWISE...LATEST OBSERVATIONS DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MODERATE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT W OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL START TO DRIFT EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 25 KT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH THE WEEK. A SET OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NE SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA BY THU...REACHING NEAR 13 FT OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA BY FRI NIGHT. .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://PREVIEW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAPHICAL FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AL