000 AGXX40 KNHC 170757 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 355 AM EDT WED APR 17 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS LIFTING NE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY RELATED TO THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES OVER THE NW GULF TO MIX TO THE SURFACE AND IS INHIBITING WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. THE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU...BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND QUASI- STATIONARY LOW PRES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW ELSEWHERE. MEANWHILE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SWING EASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN EXIT TO THE NE THIS WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY THU EVENING. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF LATE THU THROUGH FRI. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE TEXAS COAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FARTHER OUT OVER WARMER WATERS. GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR GALES AND SREF OUTPUT BOTH INDICATE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF AMZ111 S OF 27N. FARTHER SOUTH...GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR GALES OVER THE WESTERN GULF ARE CONSISTENTLY BULLISH FOR FRI...SHOWING IN EXCESS OF 60% OFF THE TAMAULIPAS COAST AND 80% OFF SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. THIS REMAINS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SREF OUTPUT AS WELL FOR THE SAME AREAS AND TIMES. DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT FROM GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 30-40 KT BEHIND FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THESE VALUES IN FORECAST AND GRIDS AND INCLUDED HEADLINE FOR GALES FRI. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE FAR SE GULF BY LATE SAT WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW WILL COVER THE GULF SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH BY WED TO ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO FRESH ACROSS THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...LOCALLY FRESH IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NW ATLC WILL BUILD S INTO THE REGION LATE THU THROUGH WEEKEND TO STRENGTHEN FLOW AREA WIDE. OBSERVATIONS FROM LA CEIBA HONDURAS INDICATE SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE...AND GUIDANCE FROM SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES LIMITATIONS TO VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A PAIR OF WEAK 1019 MB LOW PRES CENTERS ARE ANALYZED NEAR 30N68W AND 30N75W RESPECTIVELY...ALONG A MEANDERING AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. THE LOW PRES AREAS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. RIDGING EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC DOMINATES CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING. SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 7 FT OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1 TO 3 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NW ATLC WILL BUILD S ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU THROUGH WEEKEND TO STRENGTHEN FLOW AREA WIDE AND PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE TRADES S OF 26N. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AMZ017 AND AMZ023 FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. EFFECTIVE 9 APRIL 2013...TAFB GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS FOR 10-M WINDS...10-M WIND GUSTS...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAZARDS FOR THE OFFSHORE AND HIGH SEAS DOMAIN ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS AT: HTTP://PREVIEW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAPHICAL ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIFICATION/PNS13OFFSHORE_HIGHSEAS.HTM NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS AT: WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE ARE NO LONGER AVAILABLE. $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN