000
AGXX40 KNHC 161826
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
225 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYER RIDGING HAS BUILT ACROSS THE GULF 
OF MEXICO...FOLLOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS OF 
THE ATMOSPHERE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW THAT EXITED EAST OF THE 
AREA ON MON. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE 
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND QUASISTATIONARY LOW PRES OVER W 
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH SE FLOW ACROSS THE 
WESTERN GULF WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE E 
TO SE FLOW ELSEWHERE. MEANWHILE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN 
ROCKIES WILL SWING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE 
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
SHOWING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY  
THU EVENING. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE 
POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE FAR 
WESTERN GULF LATE THU THROUGH FRI. GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES 
FOR GALES ARE AT 30% OFF THE TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ COAST. SREF 
OUTPUT INDICATES PROBABILITIES FOR GALES FROM TAMPICO TO 
VERACRUZ CITY AS HIGH AS 60% BY FRI AFTERNOON...WHILE 
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT FROM GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 30-35 KT BEHIND 
FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THESE VALUES IN FORECAST AND GRIDS 
AND INCLUDED HEADLINE FOR GALES FRI. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL 
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE FAR SE GULF BY 
LATE SAT WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING OVER THE WESTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W...       
HIGH PRES ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. 
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE 
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH BY WED TO ALLOW FOR 
WINDS TO DIMINISH TO FRESH ACROSS THESE AREAS.  OTHERWISE MAINLY 
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN...LOCALLY FRESH IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NW ATLC WILL BUILD 
S INTO THE REGION LATE THU THROUGH WEEKEND TO STRENGTHEN FLOW 
AREA WIDE. 

SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...                                   
A PAIR OF LOW PRES CENTERS ARE EVIDENT IN STLT IMAGERY ALONG THE 
N BORDER...EMBEDDED ALONG A MEANDERING FRONT SINKING S INTO NE 
PORTIONS. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER FORECAST WATERS THROUGH 
WED AS THESE LOWS SHIFT SLOWLY E AND WEAKEN. RIDGING EXTENDING 
FROM HIGH PRES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS 
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO 
LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING. SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 7 FT 
OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1 TO 3 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS THROUGH 
THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NW ATLC WILL 
BUILD S ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU THROUGH WEEKEND TO STRENGTHEN 
FLOW AREA WIDE AND PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE TRADES S OF 
26N. 
                                 
WARNINGS...
GULF OF MEXICO...
.GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AMZ017-019 AND AMZ023 FRI.
CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.
SW N ATLC...
.NONE.

EFFECTIVE 9 APRIL 2013...TAFB GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS FOR 10-M 
WINDS...10-M WIND GUSTS...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAZARDS 
FOR THE OFFSHORE AND HIGH SEAS DOMAIN ARE AVAILABLE IN THE 
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) ON AN EXPERIMENTAL 
BASIS AT: HTTP://PREVIEW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAPHICAL

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT: 
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIFICATION/PNS13OFFSHORE_HIGHSEAS.HTM

NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS AT: 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE ARE NO LONGER AVAILABLE. 

$$
FORECASTER STRIPLING