000 AGXX40 KNHC 150753 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 350 AM EDT MON APR 15 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RESIDUAL CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE FAR NE GULF THIS MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIFTS NE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. SMOKE REMAINS AN ISSUES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO FIRES OVER YUCATAN. A 04 UTC ASCAT PASS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATED SE WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF THE TAMAULIPAS COAST OF NE MEXICO. THIS IS THE START OF A BROADER TREND OF INCREASE SE FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF RESULTING FROM TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER NW TEXAS AND HIGH PRES ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT INDICATING LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH MID WEEK IN THE PATTERN. MODEL CONSENSUS IS INDICATING THE SITUATION WILL START TO CHANGE THEREAFTER AS A PROGRESSIVE DEEP LAYER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL INITIATE A LATE SEASON COLD AIRMASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A STRONG COLD FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON THU...PRECEDED BY CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF WATERS IN THE WARM AND MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SWEEPING SE AND REACHING FROM NEAR MOBILE BAY TO VERACRUZ CITY MEXICO BY EARLY FRI. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FRI WILL THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT DOWN THE COAST OF MEXICO. OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY INDICATING GALES FOR FRI. GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS PROBABILITIES IN EXCESS OF 40% FOR WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN GMZ017 OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF TAMAULIPAS EARLY FRI...AS WELL AS OFF VERACRUZ STATE IN GMZ023 BY FRI AFTERNOON. FORECAST INCLUDES MENTION OF GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS FOR FRI. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NW YUCATAN BY LATE FRI. LOOKING AHEAD...THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT SAGS THROUGH THE SE GULF SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... SMOKY CONDITIONS DUE TO FIRES OVER COASTAL HONDURAS CONTINUE TO LIMIT VISIBILITY OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK TO ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO FRESH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO DRAINAGE EFFECTS. OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...LOCALLY FRESH IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BASIN ARE NOTED. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... AREAS OF CONVECTION PERSIST OVER THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS AND OFF NE FLORIDA IN AMZ111...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVING THROUGH THE SE UNITED STATES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRES OVER GEORGIA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND EASTWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG 30N...REACHING 30N68W BY EARLY TUE. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER FORECAST WATERS THROUGH TUE AS THE LOW PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA. RIDGING EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING. SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 7 FT OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1 TO 3 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BASIN ARE NOTED. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. EFFECTIVE 9 APRIL 2013...TAFB GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS FOR 10-M WINDS...10-M WIND GUSTS...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAZARDS FOR THE OFFSHORE AND HIGH SEAS DOMAIN ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS AT: HTTP://PREVIEW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAPHICAL ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIFICATION/PNS13OFFSHORE_HIGHSEAS.HTM NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS AT: WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE ARE NO LONGER AVAILABLE. $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN