000 AGXX40 KNHC 141836 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 236 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM 29N83W TO 29N88W TO LOW PRES NEAR 29N92W 1007 MB WILL LIFT N OF THE GULF WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A TROUGH IS ALSO TRAILING THE LOW THROUGH 26N92W TO 22N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SE U.S. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS ARE SE OF THE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT... LOCALLY STRONG...ALONG WITH 5 TO 8 FT SEAS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...ACCOMPANIED BY 3 TO 5 FT SEAS...EXCEPT 1 TO 3 FT IN THE SW GULF. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES BY TO THE N...ATLC RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TO THE CENTRAL GULF...HOLDING IN PLACE MON THROUGH WED. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE RIDGING WILL WEAKEN THU AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THAT FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS THU EVENING...REACHING FROM NEAR 30N88W TO 25N92W TO 18N95W BY FRI MORNING. THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET ARE VERY CLOSE WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT (UKMET STILL SLIGHTLY FASTER TO THE E). ALL THREE GLOBAL MODELS ALSO SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...WITH AT A MINIMUM FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE LIKELY ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 12 UTC NOW SHOWS SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESSIVE OF 40 KT ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ LATE FRI. THE 12 UTC GEFS 34 KT PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED DRAMATICALLY AND NOW SHOW 50 PERCENT...WHILE THE SREF GUIDANCE DOES NO GO OUT THAT FAR IN TIME YET. BEING DAY 5 INTO DAY 6...KEPT WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THU NIGHT...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE CONTINUED UPWARD TREND WITH THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE...A GALE MAY NEED TO BE HEADLINED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... GUIDANCE NO LONGER INDICATED SMOKE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS BUT MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS DO SHOW SMOKE...SO HAVE ADDED THAT BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK TO ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO FRESH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO DRAINAGE EFFECTS. OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...LOCALLY FRESH IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BASIN ARE NOTED. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A WARM FRONT IS IN THE FAR NW SW N ATLC REACHING FROM NEAR 31N75W TO JUST S OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY E OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED TSTMS REMAINING. THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES IN THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT NE ACROSS SE GEORGIA HELPING TO DEVELOP NEW LOW PRES OFF OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THAT LOW WILL REMAIN N OF 31N...ALTHOUGH A TRAILING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS N OF 27N MON...REACHING FROM 31N74W TO 28N78W BY TUE MORNING...THEN WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. OTHERWISE...RIDGING EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING. SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 7 FT OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1 TO 3 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BASIN ARE NOTED. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. EFFECTIVE 9 APRIL 2013...TAFB GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS FOR 10-M WINDS...10-M WIND GUSTS...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAZARDS FOR THE OFFSHORE AND HIGH SEAS DOMAIN ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS AT: HTTP://PREVIEW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAPHICAL ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIFICATION/PNS13OFFSHORE_HIGHSEAS.HTM NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS AT: WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE ARE NO LONGER AVAILABLE. $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY