000 AGXX40 KNHC 140747 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA TO 28N90W...WHERE THE FRONT IS MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...TO DEVELOPING LOW PRES 1006 MB NEAR 26N95W. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS AS UNSTABLE MOIST AIR RIDES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WARM FRONT. THE LOW PRES IS SUPPORTED BY A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH TEXAS. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS THROUGH LATE SUN. THE LOW PRES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACCORDINGLY...REACHING THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI LATE TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING E ACROSS THE GEORGIA COAST BY EARLY MON. THE FRONT WILL TRAIL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST E OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH LATE MON. FRESH SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL FOLLOW ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LOW PRES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUN WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTING. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MODERATE SE FLOW ELSEWHERE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON...THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND NEW LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO DRAINAGE EFFECTS. OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...LOCALLY FRESH IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC... THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BASIN ARE NOTED. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... AREAS OF CONVECTION PERSIST ALONG A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N75W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL STALL THEN RIDE N TODAY...EVENTUALLY BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG 30N BY THIS EVENING. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY THE SAME...THE GFS AND UKMET ARE SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF SHOWING THE LOW PRES TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF...REACHING THE GEORGIA COAST BY EARLY MON AS THE FRONT BOWS FARTHER N. FORECAST SOLUTION FOLLOWS A GFS/UKMET BLEND SHOWING FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW PRES THROUGH AMZ111 SUN INTO MON. THE LOW PRES WILL SHIFT NNE TO THE NC COAST BY LATE MON...WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG 28N. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH FRESH TRADES ALONG THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. EFFECTIVE 9 APRIL 2013...TAFB GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS FOR 10-M WINDS...10-M WIND GUSTS...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAZARDS FOR THE OFFSHORE AND HIGH SEAS DOMAIN ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS AT: HTTP://PREVIEW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAPHICAL ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIFICATION/PNS13OFFSHORE_HIGHSEAS.HTM NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS AT: WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE ARE NO LONGER AVAILABLE. $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN