000 AGXX40 KNHC 131844 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 244 PM EDT SAT APR 13 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA WHERE IT TURNS INTO A WARM FRONT WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH 25N87W TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19N95W. MODERATE NE TO E WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH MODERATE SE WINDS S OF THE FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TREK TO THE NW REACHING FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST TO NEAR 27N95W SUN MORNING ...MOVING BACK INLAND OVER THE U.S. GULF COAST STATES BY SUN EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW SETS UP MON THROUGH WED ACROSS THE GULF UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SE TEXAS LATE WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY ENTERING THE GULF EARLY THU. THE 12 UTC RUN OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING/MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...WHILE THE UKMET IS NOW THE SLOWEST OF THE THREE SOLUTIONS. A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WAS USED FOR NOW. ALL THREE MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE FAR W CENTRAL GULF LATE THU. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO DRAINAGE EFFECTS. THE OTHER ISSUE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL BE AREAS OF SMOKE FROM FIRES ALONG COASTAL HONDURAS...REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES BELOW 3 NM. OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...LOCALLY FRESH IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC... THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BASIN ARE NOTED. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... 1024 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 30N55W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT IS SLICING THROUGH ZONE AMZ111...EXTENDING FROM 31N78W TO NEAR VERO BEACH FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS SE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N72W TO 28N77W SUN MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL...THEN WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NW AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS DOMINATING SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM SE GEORGIA TO OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS MON MORNING. THIS LOW MAY DRAG THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT OR FRONTAL TROUGH INTO AMZ111 MON AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A BRIEF SHIFT OF THE WINDS TO THE N BEHIND IT...STALLING OUT AND DISSIPATING OVER AMZ111 INTO WESTERN AMZ113 LATE MON INTO TUE. MAINLY MODERATE E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH RESPECT TO MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. EFFECTIVE 9 APRIL 2013...TAFB GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS FOR 10-M WINDS...10-M WIND GUSTS...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAZARDS FOR THE OFFSHORE AND HIGH SEAS DOMAIN ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS AT: HTTP://PREVIEW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAPHICAL ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIFICATION/PNS13OFFSHORE_HIGHSEAS.HTM NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS AT: WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE ARE NO LONGER AVAILABLE. $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY