000 AGXX40 KNHC 110809 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 408 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... W ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF REGION THIS MORNING...ANCHORED ON 1024 MB HIGH JUST SE OF BERMUDA EXTENDING W INTO SE U.S. AHEAD OF STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING CENTRAL U.S. AND MS VALLEY. FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NW GULF PAST 6-8 HRS AND NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR CAMERON LA TO UPPER MEXICO JUST S OF BRO. DEEP LAYERED MOIST SLY FLOW PRODUCING OVER- RUNNING MOISTURE ACROSS AND BEHIND FRONT AND LIKELY ELEVATED CONVECTION STREAMING N ACROSS SE TEXAS AND LA. LATEST STLT IMAGERY SUGGESTS A TROUGH OR LOW IS DEVELOPING SE OF FRONT OVER COASTAL WATERS W OF 96W. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW NLY WINDS 20- 25 KT BEHIND FRONT...WITH BUOY 42020 RISING TO 11 FT AT 05Z AND SINCE DROPPING TO 10 FT WHILE 42019 HAS FALLEN TO 7 FT. STRONG SE TO S FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT BEING SHUNTED EWD ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS WITH PARTIAL 0342Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING SE WINDS 20-25 KT OFF N COAST OF YUCATAN EXTENDING TO 24.5N...WITH SEAS LIKELY 7-9 FT ACROSS THIS AREA DIMINISHING NWWD TO 5-7 FT INTO OFFSHORE LA COASTAL WATERS. GFS HAD BEEN FASTEST OF GLOBAL MODELS IN MOVING FRONT ACROSS N GULF...BUT HAS FINALLY BACKED OFF AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS IN MOVING FRONT FROM NEAR BILOXI TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN ERN BIG BEND TO NEAR TUXPAN BY 00Z SAT AS SW END OF FRONT BEGINS TO DRIFT NW AND DISSIPATE. N PORTION OF FRONT THEN EXPECTED TO REACH JUST S OF TAMPA BAY AREA BY 00Z SUN AS WEAKENING FRONT...WHILE W END LIFTS N ACROSS BASIN AS WARM FRONT AND INTO NW PORTIONS NEAR BRO. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS NW GULF...THIS WILL ALLOW NLY FLOW TO SPILL DOWN TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS...AND REACH NEAR 30 KT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WITHOUT A STRONG SURFACE HIGH FORCING MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION...THESE STRONG NLY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND FORECAST TO END BY 00Z AS THEY REACH 20N. HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING ECWAVE FOR WAVE FIELD BEHIND FRONT AS GFS FORCED WW3 HAD BEEN TOO FAST WITH WEAKEN WINDS BEHIND FRONT. HOWEVER...WAVE MODELS IN SLIGHLTY BETTER AGREEMENT BUT WW3 STILL TOO LOW. 1200Z RUN OF ECWAVE SHOWING MAX OF 12 FT AT 12Z THIS MORNING OFFSHORE OF CRP WHILE WW3 MAXES THERE AT 9 FT. WILL CONTINUE A MODEST BLEND AT CAP SEAS AT 11 FT OFF CRP BEHIND FRONT...SPEADING 8-10 FT SEAS WITH WIND FIELD BEHIND FRONT INTO SW PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS TO ABATE IN AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND WW3 THROUGH WEEKEND. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... 1024 MB HIGH JUST SE OF BERMUDA AND ASSOCIATED E TO W RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH LATE FRI BEFORE WEAKENING GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVES OFF NE FLORIDA FRI EVENING-NIGHT. THIS FORCES BERMUDA HIGH EWD OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE WEAK FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SUN AFTERNOON. GFS SUGGESTING ACTIVE WEATHER OUT AHEAD OF FRONT AS IT SHIFTS OFF SE U.S. COAST FRI EVENING AND NIGHT. CURRENT OBS SUGGEST FRESH E TO SE WINDS S OF 24N SPREADING WNW THROUGH BAHAMAS AND INTO EXTREME SE FLORIDA WHERE REMNANT MOISTURE FRONT ATLC FRONT IS MOVING ASHORE AS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT THROUGH BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT IN GULF...WITH AREAS OF WINDS AROUND 20 KT AND SEAS NEAR 6 FT. SLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS REMAINDER OF FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AND NW PORTIONS AND WILL INCREASE FROM 15- 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON TO 20 KT NW PART THIS EVENING AND 20-25 KT TONIGHT THROUGH SAT AHEAD OF FRONT. LITTLE PUSH OR GRADIENT EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT AND EXPECT MILD WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS BEHIND FRONT SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTING FAR ENOUGH TO THE E PAST 12 HOURS TO ALLOW GRADIENT TO RELAX VERY SLIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB ATTM...WITH FLOW ACROSS NW PORTIONS VEERING SE AND OPENING UP ACROSS CENTRAL GULF. A 0158Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT TRADES OFF OF COLOMBIA WITH PEAK WINDS SHIFTING E OF 76W. SE FLOW 20-25 KT EXPECTED REST OF EARLY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS FAR NW CARIB AND GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE SEAS 6-8 FT EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS AND SEAS THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND FRI AS FRONT MOVES INTO NE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLOW ACROSS NW CARIB VEERS MORE SE TO S. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME ACROSS REMAINDER OF CARIB BEFORE ATLC HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WEAKLY S OF STALLED FRONT SAT AND SUN...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS E AND CENTRAL CARIB...AS WELL AS TROPICAL N ATLC. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. EFFECTIVE 9 APRIL 2013...TAFB GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS FOR 10-M WINDS...10-M WIND GUSTS...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAZARDS FOR THE OFFSHORE AND HIGH SEAS DOMAIN ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE(NDFD)ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS AT: HTTP://PREVIEW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAPHICAL ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIFICATION/PNS13OFFSHORE_HIGHSEAS.HTM NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE ARE NO LONGER AVAILABLE. $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING