000 AGXX40 KNHC 100804 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 404 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ON 1025 MB HIGH NEAR BERMUDA EXTENDING W THEN W-NW INTO SE U.S. AHEAD OF DEEP LAYERED LOW MOVING INTO UPPER MS VALLEY. LATEST OBSERVATIONS DEPICTING FRESH TO STRONG RETURN FLOW OVER W AND NW ERN GULF WITH MODERATE WINDS OVER NE GULF AND ELY FLOW AROUND 20 KT EXITING THE STRAITS. SEAS RANGING 7 TO 10 FT ACROSS NW QUARTER OF BASIN THIS MORNING...WITH BUOY 42019 RECENTLY REACHING 10 FT. 0402 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED AREA OF SOLID 25 KT ACROSS AND JUST UPSTREAM OF THIS AREA EXTENDING S TO NEAR 23N. GLOBAL WAVE MODELS ALL BUILD SEAS 10 TO 11 FT ACROSS THIS AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK OFF AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES TEXAS COAST. THIS STRONG SELY FLOW IS FORECAST TO PEAK NOW THROUGH 12Z BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER MORE SLY AND SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH TEXAS GULF COAST AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE STILL EXIST BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS BY ENSEMBLES ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. GFS REMAINS FASTEST IN MOVING FRONT ACROSS N GULF NEXT 48 HOURS...WHILE HAVE USED A CONSENSUS OF EUROPEAN MODELS THAT FALLS WELL IN LINE WITH GEFS. SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT ACROSS NW GULF WILL ALLOW NLY FLOW TO SPILL DOWN TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS...AND REACH NEAR 30 KT THU MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. THIS TO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 10 FT BEHIND FRONT...AND WILL BLEND IN ECWAVE STRONGLY AS WW3 PEAKS AT 8 FT IN TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THU MORNING IN MIXED NLY FLOW AND SE WIND SWELL. FRONT TO REACH MOUTH OF MS TO TAMPICO BY 00Z FRI AND FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR TUXPAN BY 00Z SAT AS W END OF BOUNDARY BEGINS TO WASH OUT AND LIFT N. FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER S THAN TAMPA BAY AREA SAT-SAT NIGHT AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS IT STALLS...BEGINS TO WEAKEN SUN...AND LIFT N INTO N GULF SUN-SUN NIGHT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES JUST E OF BERMUDA AND ASSOCIATED E TO W RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. LATEST OBSERVATION INDICATE FRESHENING ELY FLOW S OF 25N...W OF ABOUT 68W...SPREADING W-NW TO EXTREME SE FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS. A 1940Z ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS 7-8 FT ALONG 71/72W N OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHILE UPSTREAM...BUOY 41046 IS HOLDING STEADY AT 7 FT. LITTLE CHANGE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE HIGH BEGINS TO BE NUDGED EWD THU THROUGH FRI AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES E ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS TO VEER ACROSS SW AND W PORTIONS DURING THIS TIME AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY...BECOMING S TO SW 20-25 KT NW PORTIONS N OF 27N FRI AS COLD FRONT MOVES E THROUGH FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA COAST FRI EVENING AND WEAKEN QUICKLY...STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE SAT. MODERATE ELY TRADES TO PREVAIL ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC...WITH FRESH TRADES S OF 14N...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 6-7 FT IN ENE TRADE WIND SWELL. WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE VERY SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY E AND MOVES DUE N OF THE AREA TO TIGHTEN GRADIENT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST E OF BERMUDA HAS HELPED TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PAST 24 HRS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPANDING N ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS TO ABOUT 16N...WITH OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED WINDS ACCELERATING TO 25 KT AROUND THE BARAHONA PENINSULA. SOLID AREA IF WINDS 25 KT PREVAIL THROUGH SRN CARIB AS DEPICTED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES...WITH WINDS NEARING 30 KT OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA. 0459Z OSCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED STRONG ESE TO SE WINDS TO 30 KT THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS AND WILL HAVE TO INCREASE SEAS THERE IN SHORT TERM. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER S TO SE NW PORTIONS INCLUDING GULF OF HONDURAS AS GULF OF MEXICO FRONT MOVES E OF 90W EARLY FRI. SLIGHTLY E MOVEMENT OF BERMUDA HIGH TO WEAKEN PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN BY EARLY SAT TO BRING ABOUT MODEST DECREASING TREND IN WIND AND SEAS ACROSS E AND CENTRAL CARIB...WHILE CONDITIONS DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY NW PORTIONS. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. EFFECTIVE 9 APRIL 2013...TAFB GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS FOR 10-M WINDS...10-M WIND GUSTS...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAZARDS FOR THE OFFSHORE AND HIGH SEAS DOMAIN ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE(NDFD)ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS AT: HTTP://PREVIEW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAPHICAL ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIFICATION/PNS13OFFSHORE_HIGHSEAS.HTM NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE ARE NO LONGER AVAILABLE. $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING