000 AGXX40 KNHC 090807 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 405 AM EDT TUE APR 9 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA ANCHORS RIDGE EXTENDING W-SW ALONG THE N GULF COASTS TO LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHEN NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS ACROSS NW CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF...WITH BUOY 42002 25 TO NEAR 30 KT PAST FEW HOURS. MODELS HINTED AT ENHANCED WIND SURGE OVERNIGHT BUT GFS AND ECMWF HAD DIFFERING LOCATIONS. TPW ANIMATIONS SUGGEST LLVL VORT LIFTING N INTO CENTRAL TEXAS COAST ATTM...AND THIS WIND SURGE APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ACROSS E SEMICIRCLE. ISSUED AN UPDATE FOR GULF ZONES PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SHORT LIVED INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS...25-30 KT AND SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT INVOF 42002. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH WED...AND INDICATE FRESHENING SELY RETURN FLOW TODAY TO EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF GULF WATERS W OF 88W AT 20-25 KT WITH LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE OFF NW YUCATAN COAST AND ALSO OFFSHORE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. SEAS TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT ACROSS BOTH OF THESE AREA BY EVENING...AND 6-8 FT ELSEWHERE W OF 88W. STRAIGHT LINE FETCH OF THIS FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING COULD YIELD SEAS TO 10 FT IN TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FORECAST TO ENTER NW WATERS AROUND 00Z THU AND MOVE TO MOBILE BAY TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 00Z FRI...THEN REACH NEAR TAMPA TO TAMPICO BY 00Z SAT AT FRONT BEGINS TO STALL ACROSS FLORIDA AND DRIFT NW ACROSS W PORTIONS. A QUICK SURGE OF NLY FLOW IS FORECAST BEHIND FRONT THU...RACING DOWN TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS. WINDS LIKELY TO PEAK AT 25-30 KT W OF 95/96W DURING THIS TIME WITH SEAS BUILDING 9-10 FT. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST WW3 OUTPUT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. STILL BLENDING GFS-ECMWF FOR THIS TIME FRAME. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES NEAR BERMUDA TO DOMINATE THE REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BRING A RETURN TO MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS TO AREA WATERS BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY VEER W PORTIONS WED AND THU AHEAD OF GULF OF MEXICO FRONT. OLD FRONTAL ZONE STRUNG OUT ACROSS S PORTIONS OF ATLC ZONES THIS MORNING ALONG ABOUT 23N AND INTO SE BAHAMAS...AND EXPECTED TO MEANDER AND DRIFT N TUE-WED AS STEERING FLOW VEERS SE. LOOKS LIKE WE MAY HAVE BEEN ANALYZING FRONT A BIT TOO FAR S PAST FEW MAPS AND WILL MAKE THIS MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR THE 06Z HSF. TRADES TO FRESHEN THROUGH THE SRN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND WED...TO 15-20 KT AND THEN SOLID SE AT 20 KT BY WED NIGHT AND EXTEND THROUGH THE STRAITS. SEAS TO BUILD 5-7 FT THERE DURING THIS TIME. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS HAVE RETURNED TO S CENTRAL CARIB AS HIGH PRES N RESIDES TO THE N NEAR BERMUDA. 20 KT TRADES HAVE EXPANDED N TO 15N...AND INCREASED TO 25 KT ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COASTAL WATERS. ALSO DEPICTED BY ASCAT PASSES IN PAST FEW HOURS ARE NELY WINDS 20 KT FUNNELING THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND STRONG TRADES 20-25 KT IN GULF OF HONDURAS. FRESHENING TRADES EXPECTED TO EXPAND FARTHER N TO 17-18N ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB TODAY...WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OFF THE COAST OF BARAHONA YIELDING ENE WINDS TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 8-9 FT BY WED MORNING. THIS PATTERN TO HOLD THROUGH THU MORNING BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH IS NUDGED EASTWARD BY APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO FRONT...AND GRADIENT RELAXES SLIGHTLY IN CENTRAL CARIB...WHILE WINDS VEER SE-S ACROSS NW PORTIONS. NOCTURNAL WIND MAXES TO 30 KT ARE SUGGESTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN GULF OF HONDURAS 06-12Z EACH OF NEXT FEW MORNINGS...AND WILL BUMP US SEAS 1-2 FT ABOVE WW3 GUIDANCE IN EACH AREA. MODERATE E-NE TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL PREVAIL N HALF AND 15-20 KT S OF 15N THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY S PORTIONS THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT E AND MOVE DUE N OF THE AREA...FRESHENING THE FLOW TO 15-20 KT S PORTIONS THU. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. EFFECTIVE 20 MARCH 2013...TAFB GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS FOR 10-M WINDS...10-M WIND GUSTS...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAZARDS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS AT: HTTP://PREVIEW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAPHICAL ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIFICATION/PNS13OFFSHORE_HIGHSEAS.HTM NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WILL BE DISCONTINUED ONCE THE "OCEANIC" VIEW IS ADDED TO THE EXPERIMENTAL NDFD GRAPHICAL INTERFACE. $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING