000 AGXX40 KNHC 080740 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 340 AM EDT MON APR 8 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS W ATLC BETWEEN HATTERAS AND BERMUDA ANCHORS RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO N CENTRAL GULF THIS MORNING AND WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGH WED. LATEST OBSERVATIONS DEPICT MODERATE E TO SE WINDS PREVAILING OVER MOST OF THE GULF WATERS EXCEPT FOR LIGHT WINDS NE PART AND FRESH FLOW AROUND 20 KT THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND W CENTRAL PORTIONS...WHERE SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 5 FT. RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND REALIGN MORE W TO E THROUGH TUE...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHT VEERING OF FLOW AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KT LATE TUE THROUGH WED MORNING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST WED. SEAS TO BUILD TO 7-9 FT BY TUE AFTERNOON NW PORTIONS AND INCREASE TO 8-9 FT BY WED MORNING. TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AMONG GLOBAL MODELS WITH GFS FASTEST BY ABOUT 6 HOURS MOVING FRONT INTO NW COASTAL WATERS EARLY WED EVENING AND DRAGGING FRONT ACROSS N GULF TO NEW ORLEANS BY 12Z THU. STRONG WINDS TO 30 KT FORECAST BY MODELS W OF THE FRONT OVER THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS AND REACHING INTO W BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE THU. SIMILAR TRENDS SEEN IN ENSEMBLES AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE FASTER GFS. OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS OFFSHORE OF THE TAMIAHUA PENINSULA MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED AREA OS GALES THERE...WHERE GEFS PROBS CURRENTLY INDICATING 30 PERCENT BY 12Z THU. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... GALE CENTER JUST N OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT HAS CONSOLIDATED PAST 24 HOURS WITH IMPROVED ORGANIZATION...LIFTING NE OUT OF THE REGION...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH 31N54W TO NEAR 25N61W...WITH WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDING SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS. STLT IMAGERY PAST 12 HOURS HAS SHOWN THIS TAIL END OF THE FRONT DRIFTING NW AND BEGINNING TO BREAK UP. THIS TREND FORECAST TO CONTINUE NEXT 48 HOURS AS W ATLC RIDGE REALIGNS MORE W TO E AND TRADES BEGIN TO FRESHEN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. WW3 SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE WITH NELY SWELL N OF 26N THIS MORNING...BY 1-2 FT PER BUOYS OBS. THIS NE SWELL TO PEAK ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TODAY AND THEN ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TUE THROUGH TUE EVENING...WITH SEAS 6-7 FT. WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO ELY BY TUE AND FRESHEN THROUGH THE SRN BAHAMAS...BECOMING E TO SE 15-20 KT WED AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES NW GULF OF MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS E CENTRAL CUBA AND NW CARIB ILL DEFINED AND DROPPED FROM MAPS...WITH INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING N- NE OUT OF GULF OF HONDURAS LIKELY THE REMNANT TAIL OF BOUNDARY. RECENT ASCAT PASSES HAVE SHOWN 20 KT TRADES CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO S OF 13.5N AND EXTEND BETWEEN 63W AND 77W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND ACROSS ALL BUT S PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS DUE TO WEAK TROUGHING OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF ATLC COLD FRONT...WHILE STEADY STREAM OF ENE TRADE WIND SWELL CENTERED AROUND 9 SECONDS IS MAINTAINING SEAS 6-8 FT THERE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 7-9 FT TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TODAY BEFORE FADING NEXT FEW DAYS. W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AND INCREASE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN...YIELDING STRONG TRADES S OF 15N ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB AND THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS. NOCTURNAL WIND MAXES EACH NIGHT FORECAST TO REACH 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND IN GULF OF HONDURAS STARTING TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS... MORE TYPICAL OF SEASONAL TRADEWINDS. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. EFFECTIVE 20 MARCH 2013...TAFB GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS FOR 10-M WINDS...10-M WIND GUSTS...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAZARDS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS AT: HTTP://PREVIEW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAPHICAL ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIFICATION/PNS13OFFSHORE_HIGHSEAS.HTM NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WILL BE DISCONTINUED ONCE THE "OCEANIC" VIEW IS ADDED TO THE EXPERIMENTAL NDFD GRAPHICAL INTERFACE. $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING