000 AGXX40 KNHC 040700 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT THU APR 4 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... REMOTE SENSED DATA SHOW ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MCC IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF IS WANING EVIDENCED BY SHARP DECREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND CLOUD-TOP WARMING WITH UPPER LEVEL VAPOR DEBRIS SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE DRIVING FORCE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE SE STATES. SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR 29N87W AT 1009 MB IS STILL DEVELOPING. EXPECT THE LOW TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS OUTER BANKS THROUGH FRI. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF TODAY...FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT...THEN EXIT THE REGION LATE FRI. GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION SAT BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH SUN AND MON AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0250 UTC SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA NE OF A WARM FRONT IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. A LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NE ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE DEEPENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION EARLY FRI AND QUICKLY REACH FROM NEAR 31N76W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA BY FRI EVENING. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW AND HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL ATLC WILL INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS IN NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH FRI THEN DIMINISH FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE LOW RACES NORTHEASTWARD. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT NEW LOW PRES WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE E-SE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUN...THEN LIFT NE AWAY FROM THE REGION. BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF MODEL PLACES THE FRONT FROM 31N74W TO EASTERN CUBA SAT AFTERNOON AND FROM 31N68W TO 25N68W TO E CUBA SUN. GENTLE TO MODERATE E-NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION SUN AND MON AS HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. HIGH PRES CENTERED NE OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO ENHANCE TRADE WINDS OVER BROAD AREA OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY AS LOW PRES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TIGHTENS PRES GRADIENT W OF 85W. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY FRI THEN WEAKEN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT AND SAT. MODERATE-FRESH E TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION SAT THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. EFFECTIVE 20 MARCH 2013...TAFB GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS FOR 10-M WINDS...10-M WIND GUSTS...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAZARDS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS AT: HTTP://PREVIEW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAPHICAL ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIFICATION/PNS13OFFSHORE_HIGHSEAS.HTM NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WILL BE DISCONTINUED ONCE THE "OCEANIC" VIEW IS ADDED TO THE EXPERIMENTAL NDFD GRAPHICAL INTERFACE. $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL