000 AGXX40 KNHC 030712 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 305 AM EDT WED APR 3 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE E-SE WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION...AND SEA HEIGHTS ARE BUILDING TO 4-5 FT IN THE NW GULF FROM A LONG FETCH OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS. EXPECT THE TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN NW GULF BY THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN TONIGHT AND THU AS IT TRACKS E-NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...THEN RACE NE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRI. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THU AND FRI. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA LATE FRI. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR TSTMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION SAT...BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH SE SUN. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 31N66W TO 28N70W TO 27N80W... WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 28N65W TO HISPANIOLA. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH HAS MOVED E OF 65W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT AND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO MERGE INTO A SINGLE TROUGH ROUGHLY FROM 30N59W TO 22N70W BY THIS EVENING AND SHIFT E OF THE FORECAST AREA THU. A LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND THU WILL CAUSE SE WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS N WATERS THU AND FRI. WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE N OF 30N THU NIGHT AND FRI...BUT NONE OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY FORECASTS INDICATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY... ALTHOUGH WINDS OF 25-30 KT ARE CONSIDERED LIKELY IN ZONE AMZ111 FRI...WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 8-12 FT. THE LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT OVER THE REGION FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE E-NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. HIGH PRES CENTERED NE OF THE AREA IS ENHANCING TRADE WINDS OVER A BROAD AREA OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THU AS LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TIGHTENS A PRES GRADIENT W OF 85W. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI THEN WEAKEN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH E TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. EFFECTIVE 20 MARCH 2013...TAFB GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS FOR 10-M WINDS...10-M WIND GUSTS...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAZARDS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS AT: HTTP://PREVIEW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAPHICAL ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIFICATION/PNS13OFFSHORE_HIGHSEAS.HTM NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WILL BE DISCONTINUED ONCE THE "OCEANIC" VIEW IS ADDED TO THE EXPERIMENTAL NDFD GRAPHICAL INTERFACE. $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL