000 AGXX40 KNHC 021822 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT TUE APR 2 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF WATERS WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND WED IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER TEXAS. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO APPROACH OR BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE IN THE NE PORTION OF THE GULF WED NIGHT DUE TO A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDDLE ATLC STATES AND THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE GULF REGION...BUT THE ENSEMBLE GALE PROBABILITY IS STILL ZERO. SO FAR...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR INCREASING WINDS TO 30 KT. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NE TO NEAR PENSACOLA FL BY THU NIGHT...THEN RACING NE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRI. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THU AND FRI. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA LATE FRI. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE COMBINES WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRES CENTER. GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION SAT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER THE FAR NW WATERS AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS N WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FURTHER SOUTH TO THE EASTERN BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH THAT NOW EXTENDS FROM 28N68W TO THE SE BAHAMAS WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS MAINLY E OF 70W THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM 27N65W TO 20N72W WED WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU THEN DISSIPATE BY FRI. A LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WED NIGHT AND THU WILL CAUSE SE WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS N WATERS THU AND FRI. WINDS MAY REACH NEAR GALE FORCE N OF 30N THU NIGHT AND FRI. A MINORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATE GALE-FORCE WINDS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH WINDS OF 25-30 KT ARE CONSIDERED LIKELY IN ZONE AMZ111 BY FRI...WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 8-12 FT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS MOST OF EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO SHIFT E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. CURRENTLY...THE 1030 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 32N46W IS ENHANCING TRADE WINDS OVER A BROAD AREA OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH THU AS A LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TIGHTENS THE PRES GRADIENT W OF 85W. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI...THEN WEAKEN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. EFFECTIVE 20 MARCH 2013...TAFB GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS FOR 10-M WINDS...10-M WIND GUSTS...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAZARDS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS AT: HTTP://PREVIEW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAPHICAL ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIFICATION/PNS13OFFSHORE_HIGHSEAS.HTM NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WILL BE DISCONTINUED ONCE THE "OCEANIC" VIEW IS ADDED TO THE EXPERIMENTAL NDFD GRAPHICAL INTERFACE. $$ FORECASTER GR