000 AGXX40 KNHC 010755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT MON APR 1 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COMBINED BUOY...SHIP AND OIL PLATFORM DATA INDICATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUE NIGHT AND WED IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG 100W TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. STRONG HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE COAST OF THE U.S. WED WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND CAUSE WINDS IN THE NE GULF TO VEER FROM W-NW TONIGHT TO E-NE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN E-SE WED. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NW GULF NEAR 25N95W WED NIGHT THEN DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NE TO NEAR PENSACOLA FL BY THU NIGHT...THEN RACING NE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRI. IF THE LOW DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THU AND FRI. LAST TWO GFS MODEL RUNS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WARM SECTOR ALONG THE GULF COAST NEAR MOBILE...BUT ENSEMBLE GALE PROBABILITY IS STILL ZERO. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N63W EXTENDS A RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THE RIDGE TO PERSIST ALONG 28N THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE THE HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. MAINLY FRESH SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP N OF 29N THROUGH MON AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE N WATERS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. A LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WED AND THU WILL CAUSE SE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE N WATERS BY THU...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-8 FT IN NW PORTION LATE THU. WINDS MAY REACH NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE NW WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0205 UTC SHOWED STRONG E-NE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 14N. EXPECT 25-30 KT WINDS TO PERSIST NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH SEAS TO 12 FT THROUGH EARLY TUE...THEN DIMINISH WED AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SLIDES E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE...RAISING SEAS TO 7-9 FT. A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TRADES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC TUE THROUGH THU WITH SEAS TO NEAR 9 FT. FRESH SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS WED AND THU AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. EFFECTIVE 20 MARCH 2013...TAFB GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS FOR 10-M WINDS...10-M WIND GUSTS...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAZARDS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS AT: HTTP://PREVIEW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAPHICAL ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIFICATION/PNS13OFFSHORE_HIGHSEAS.HTM NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WILL BE DISCONTINUED ONCE THE "OCEANIC" VIEW IS ADDED TO THE EXPERIMENTAL NDFD GRAPHICAL INTERFACE. $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL