000 AGXX40 KNHC 241903 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 15 UTC THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO 90 NMI S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. FRONT IS RACING TOWARD A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM APPALACHICOLA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND SHOULD OVERTAKE THIS FEATURE BY 21 UTC. A 1540 UTC ASCAT PASS HAS CAPTURED THE 25-30 KT N-NW WINDS W OF THE FRONT. THESE WINDS ARE CONFIRMED BY CMAN/NOAA BUOYS W OF THE FRONT AS WELL. AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE E GULF HAS DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES E. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY SE AND CLEAR THE GULF SHORTLY AFTER 1200 UTC MON. NLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 25-30 KT FOR ANOTHER 18-24 HOURS BEFORE V VEERING SLIGHTLY AT 20-25 KT LATE MON. AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE SE CONUS BEHIND STRENGTHENING LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST FRESHENS NLY WINDS TUE. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN WED AND THU WITH WINDS DECREASING AND VEERING TO THE SE OVER THE FAR W GULF BY LATE THU. RETURN FLOW IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN BY FRI. 10-M WIND AND SGNFT WAVE HEIGHT GRIDS WERE A BLEND OF THE OFFICIAL FCST...LATEST RUN OF THE GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF...HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WELL E OF BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO MOVE ESE WITH S TO SW WINDS INCREASING OVER THE NW ZONES...AMZ111 AND AMZ113. 1540 ASCAT PASS INDICATED 25 TO 30 KT WINDS OVER NW HALF OF AZM111. COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE SE CONUS IS SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA COAST AFTER 03 UTC TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM 31N68W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE MON AND FROM 26N65W TO SE CUBA BY LATE TUE. TRENDS IN THE 12Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOW BACKING OFF OF GALES...WITH ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES PEAKING AT 40% ALONG 31N AROUND 00 UTC... VERSUS 60-70% IN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. SINCE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE MORE BENIGN ECMWF WAS USED IN THE GRIDS...GALES ARE NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR. GIVEN THE WEAKER TRENDS IN THE MODEL 10-M WINDS...SEAS NOW BUILD TO ABOUT 15-16 FT ACROSS THE FAR NE ZONES LATE TUE AND WED AS STRONG W TO NW WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS ZONES AMZ113 AND AMZ115. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN WED WINDS DROP OFF TO 15-20 KT. A REINFORCING SURGE OF NW WINDS...INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ENSUES ON THU ACROSS THE FAR NE ZONES. NW TO N WINDS CONTINUE ON FRI CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL NE OF THE BAHAMAS AND COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG S TO SE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING GULF OF HONDURAS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE CORE OF THE WINDS WAS CAPTURED BY A 1542 UTC ASCAT PASS. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SE GULF...THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE MON AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE WRN GULF OF HONDURAS BY LATE TUE... AND FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO HONDURAS BY LATE WED...AND THU. A FRONT EXTENDING THIS FAR S INTO THE CARIBBEAN SO LATE IN THE SEASON IS RARE. GIVEN WARMING SSTS...THE DECENT CAA MAY BUILD SEAS 1 TO 2 FT HIGHER THAN NWW3...AND SEAS MAY REACH 10 FT IN ISOLATED AREAS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY WED. NE WINDS SUBSIDE THU AND FRI WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FUNNELING NE WINDS THR9OUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. EFFECTIVE 20 MARCH 2013...TAFB GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS FOR 10M WINDS...10M WIND GUSTS...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAZARDS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS AT: HTTP://PREVIEW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAPHICAL ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIFICATION/PNS13OFFSHORE_HIGHSEAS.HTM NOTE...EFFECTIVE 25 MARCH 2013 GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WILL BE DISCONTINUED. $$ FORECASTER COBB