000 AGXX40 KNHC 210800 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT THU MAR 21 2013 CORRECTED TYPO IN SW N ATLC MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W TO 23N87W TO 20N94W. N-NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE E-SE IN THE FAR NW GULF ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM NORTHERN TEXAS. DESPITE WINDS HAVING DECREASED...A LINGERING AREA OF 8-10 FT NE SWELL IS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 87W AND 95W AS INDICATED BY CENTRAL GULF BUOYS. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE AND WIND MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD WERE BOTH TOO LOW WITH RESPECT TO CONDITIONS BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SE GULF LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW-N. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO OVER S CAROLINA BY FRI MORNING ALLOWING FOR MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RETURN FLOW INCREASES SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER THE GULF SAT NIGHT...EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN MORNING. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW REACHING FROM 30N88W TO 25N98W SUN MORNING WITH 20-30 KT WINDS BEHIND IT (POSSIBLE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE)...THEN FROM TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO 18N95W SUN EVENING... MOVING SE OF THE GULF MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW-N. FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY MON...DIMINISHING TO MODERATE TO FRESH AND SHIFTING TO THE NE-E AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRI. HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE REGION BY LATE FRI ALLOWING FOR E-SE WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND AMZ011 TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG BY LATE FRI NIGHT...WITH NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS SETTING UP NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY SAT MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO SUN MORNING... WEAKENING SOMEWHAT BY MON MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES BY TO THE N...POTENTIALLY BREACHING THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN EARLY MON. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES WILL THEN DOMINATE LATE MON INTO TUE... LOCALLY FRESH NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF ATLC HIGH PRES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS...BUILDING TO 8 FT IN EASTERLY SWELL S OF 11N/12N LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... 1005 MB LOW PRES IS EXITING THE REGION NEAR 31N76W WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 30N76W TO 27N77W TO 24N81W. HEAVY CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 180-210 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NEAR THE LOW WITH DANGEROUS FREQUENT LIGHTNING PERSISTING. SOUTHWESTERLY 20-30 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW W OF THE FRONT. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE N OF 31N DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING FROM 31N68W TO 26N69W TO 23N73W BY THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING THE OFFSHORE WATERS FRI. FRONTAL TROUGHS WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE NE PORTION AROUND THE PARENT LOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N/28N ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20-30 KT WINDS WITH ANY GALE FORCE CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE SHORT-FUSED AND DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION. 00 UTC GEFS 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES HAVE BACKED OFF TO ZERO S OF 31N WITH THE 21 UTC SREF AT 10 PERCENT AT MOST. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE CAROLINAS BEHIND THESE BOUNDARIES FRI...REACHING 27N69W SAT MORNING...THEN RETREATING E OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS SUN MORNING ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS TO SET UP ACROSS THE ZONES N OF 27N LATE SAT THROUGH SUN. THE HIGH AND AN ATTENDANT RIDGE WILL INITIALLY MANAGE TO KEEP ANY NEW FRONTS/TROUGHS AT BAY N OF 31N...ALTHOUGH IT WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FRONT TO INVADE LATE SUN. THAT FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM 31N76W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE SUN NIGHT...31N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS MON EVENING. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. EFFECTIVE MARCH 20, 2013...TAFB GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS FOR 10- M WINDS...10-M WIND GUSTS...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAZARDS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS AT: HTTP://PREVIEW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAPHICAL ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIFICATION/PNS13OFFSHORE_HIGHSEAS.HTM NOTE...EFFECTIVE MARCH 25, 2013 GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WILL BE DISCONTINUED. $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY