000 AGXX40 KNHC 201859 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT WED MAR 20 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL MERGE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO BY THU MORNING...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE SE GULF BY THU EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF WITH MAX SEAS TO 7-8 FT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION THU AND FRI WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH SAT. AFTER SAT...THINGS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN. GFS AND ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO WAVER BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A STRONG FRONT DIVING SOUTHWARD...AND A WEAKER FRONT WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY REMAINING N OF THE GULF COAST. COMPLICATING FACTOR IS STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE MAP. WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH A BLEND OF PAST MODEL GUIDANCE AND MORE RECENT MODEL RUNS WITH AN EVENTUAL GOAL OF REACHING MODEL CONSENSUS WITHIN NEXT DAY OR TWO. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRI. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE W CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS...YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL BE FAIRLY CONSTANT THROUGH TUE...5-7 FT IN MIXED SWELL. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A STATIONARY FRONT FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MERGE WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM 31N71W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU THEN SHIFT E OF THE AREA FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND IT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 28N THU...WITH WINDS APPROACHING 30 KT N OF 29N E OF THE FRONT. OCCASIONAL SURGES OF COLD AIR ROTATING AROUND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA WILL SKIRT THE NE PORTION OF AREA AS FRONTAL TROUGHS. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E THROUGH SUN AND ALLOW ANTICYCLONIC SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. NOTE...EFFECTIVE 20 MARCH 2013...GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS FOR 10M WINDS AND WIND GUSTS...SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AND HAZARDS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS AT: HTTP://PREVIEW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAPHICAL ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ OM/NOTIFICATIONS/PNS13OFFSHORE_HIGHSEAS.HTM ALSO NOTE...EFFECTIVE 25 MARCH 2013 GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WILL BE DISCONTINUED. $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL