000 AGXX40 KNHC 190628 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 228 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE E GULF SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH HEAVIER AND EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION TO THE N OVER THE SE U.S. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WATERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS POISED TO ENTER THE GULF VERY SHORTLY WITH THE AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF SHORES. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN FROM TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL BRIEFLY STALL THROUGH TONIGHT. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL OVERTAKE AND MERGE WITH THE OLD BOUNDARY WED MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. THAT NEW BOUNDARY WILL REACH FROM SW FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO WED EVENING ...CLEARING THE GULF BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THU...SHIFTING TO THE E FRI ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP YET AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY SAT...WEAKENING BY LATE SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN AS FAR AS THE TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL IN THE GULF (NOW LOOKING MORE LIKE SUN). CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SHIFTS E. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE WED THROUGH FRI...INCREASING TO MODERATE TO FRESH LATE FRI THROUGH SAT...EVEN UP TO FRESH TO STRONG AGAIN IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHTEST. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH LITTLE IMPACT ASSOCIATED WITH IT OTHER THAN A BRIEF WIND SHIFT AS IT DISSIPATES WHILE DROPPING TO 19N/18N BY FRI. NORTHERLY SWELLS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH MID-WEEK. NE TO E MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALONG 29N CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH MAINLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AROUND IT ACROSS THE BASIN... EXCEPT N OF EASTERN CUBA AND HAITI WHERE A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW. THAT FRONT WILL ENTER ZONE AMZ111 THIS AFTERNOON... EXTENDING FROM 31N75W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THIS EVENING... WHERE IT WILL STALL THROUGH WED MORNING. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE OLD BOUNDARY BY WED AFTERNOON...REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE WED NIGHT...MOVING E OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NOW FORECAST BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N...WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE N OF 31N. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE TO NEAR 29N75W FRI EVENING THROUGH SAT...WHILE REINFORCING FRONTS OR TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND A PARENT LOW WELL N OF THE AREA SKIRT THE NE CORNER OF THE EASTERN OFFSHORE WATERS ZONES. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY