000 AGXX40 KNHC 170624 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 224 AM EDT SUN MAR 17 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE ALONG 26N/27N EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRES NOW WELL E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE ATLC. LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED DATA SHOWS MAINLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE GULF...LOCALLY FRESH NEAR THE TEXAS AND MEXICO COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN MEXICO IS HELPING TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE WESTERN GULF...SPREADING NE TO THE CENTRAL GULF. LITTLE CHANGE IN CURRENT MARINE CONDITIONS IS FORECAST THROUGH MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF BY TUE MORNING. THE LATEST GFS DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH RESPECT TO WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF 20-25 KT IN THE COAST WATERS...QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE TUE. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS BY TUE MORNING...THEN WILL STALL AS IT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TUE NIGHT. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS WILL LIFT THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THU. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE GULF ON FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN JUST S OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVOLVE INTO A SHEAR LINE LATER TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...EVEN TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH SEAS UP TO 11 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND LOW PRES OVER INTERIOR COLOMBIA ARE SUPPORTING THESE CONDITIONS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN THROUGH EARLY MON...THEN THE TRADES WILL DIMINISH AS THE HIGH N OF THE AREA RETREATS TO THE NE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO BE CONFINED WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY TUE MORNING...THEN ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH EVEN THERE BY WED MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALSO...FRESH TO STRONG E-SE FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT COMMENCING TONIGHT AND REPEATING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE IS WEAKENING FROM 20N55W TO 18N63W AND THIS PORTION TOO WILL EVOLVE INTO A SHEAR LINE LATER TODAY. THE SHEAR LINE WILL SINK TO ALONG 19N TONIGHT...THEN TO 18N MON NIGHT...DISSIPATING TUE. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... 1022 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 26N70W IS SUPPORTING AN E TO W RIDGE ALONG 26N WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FROM 24N TO 26N...AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ELSEWHERE. AN EXCEPTION IS FRESH TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS N OF 30N WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOW PRES TO THE N OVER THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RIDGE WILL NOT SHIFT MUCH...ONLY GRADUALLY LIFTING TO 28N BY MON MORNING...THEN WILL WEAKEN WHILE MOVING E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT IS FORECAST TO BREACH THE NW WATERS TUE MORNING...EXTENDING FROM 31N73W TO NEAR JUPITER FLORIDA TUE EVENING...FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA WED MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL...MERGING WITH A REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT ON THU. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT N OF 29N/30N INITIALLY...DIMINISHING TO ONLY MODERATE BY WED MORNING...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE BY THU MORNING. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY