000 AGXX40 KNHC 160626 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 226 AM EDT SAT MAR 16 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1024 MB HIGH PRES IN THE NE GULF JUST W OF TAMPA BAY FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE E-SE TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS DOMINATE THE GULF ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS IN THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF...AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO COASTS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THE NOCTURNAL JET NEAR THE YUCATAN COAST WILL SUPPORT AN EXCEPTION TO THIS...WITH N-NE 15 KT WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO BREACH THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF LATE MON NIGHT...REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TUE MORNING...THEN STALLING FROM THE TAMPA BAY FLORIDA AREA TO NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TUE EVENING THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE EITHER DISSIPATING OR LIFTING BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL INITIALLY FOLLOW THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF TO MAINLY MODERATE LOCALLY FRESH AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... A SHEAR LINE EXTENDING FROM THE S COAST OF HAITI TO THE NICARAGUAN COASTAL WATERS WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE FEEDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SOUTHWESTWARD W OF THE SHEAR LINE AS INDICATED BY RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH SEMI-PERMANENT LOW PRES POSITIONED OVER NW COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO FRESH NE- E WINDS PREVAIL. HIGH PRES IMPACTING THE WATERS N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS LATER TODAY THROUGH SUN...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY MON AS THE HIGH RETREATS TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE REGION. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL THEN BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE AREA NEAR NW COLOMBIA TUE...DIMINISHING EVEN THERE TO MODERATE TO FRESH WED INTO THU. ALSO...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E-SE WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY SET UP IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS SUN THROUGH TUE WHERE THE PRES PATTERN WILL SUPPORT SUCH. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL SINK S INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS SUN WHILE EVOLVING INTO A SHEAR LINE WITH NE 20-25 KT WINDS N OF IT AND 15 KT WINDS S OF IT. THE SHEAR LINE WILL REACH TO ALONG 20N SUN EVENING...18N MON MORNING ...DISSIPATE BY TUE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MORE RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY (BY ABOUT 5 KT) ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 22N62W TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATING A DEVELOPING HIGH NEAR 28N76W. WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED TO MODERATE TO FRESH...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 26N TO 29N W OF 70W NEAR THE HIGH. THE FRONT WILL MORPH INTO A SHEAR LINE ACROSS AMZ125 AND AMZ127 LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...SAGGING S OF THE AREA SUN AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE. THAT HIGH AND AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL LINGER ALONG 27N/28N THROUGH MON MORNING...MIGRATING TO 30N BY TUE MORNING...THEN WEAKENING AND RETREATING TO THE NE- E AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM NE FL/SE GA. THAT FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER AMZ111 LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING... REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NEAR FORT PIERCE FLORIDA WED MORNING...AND FROM 31N66W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY THU MORNING. ONLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERALL...THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE MUCH LESS ACTIVE AND MORE TRANQUIL ACROSS THE BASIN COMPARED TO CONDITIONS DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY