000 AGXX40 KNHC 091915 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EST SAT MAR 09 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SE RETURN FLOW IS PICKING UP IN THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT. A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WAS OBSERVED BY THE 1240 UTC WINDSAT AND 1552 UTC ASCAT PASSES. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT IN SE SWELL BY SUN. THE 1200 UTC GFS AND NAVGEM SHOWS SOLID 30 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ AT 0600 UTC MON MORNING. THE 1200 UTC GEFS MEMBERS DO NOT CARRY A CHANCE OF GALE...BUT THEIR LOWER RESOLUTION IS A DETRIMENT HERE. THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH DEEP LAYER TROUGHS OF THIS AMPLITUDE AND SPEED. CONFIDENT THAT THE WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO GALE FORCE AT A MINIMUM. BY 1200-1800 UTC MON...THE 1200 UTC GFS...UKMET...AND NAVGEM ALL CARRY GALE FORCE NW WINDS IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF IS THE HOLD OUT. THE GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM 0600 TO 1800 UTC MON. HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE 1410 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE N OF 29N BETWEEN 59W AND 70W. W-NW WINDS TO GALE FORCE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E THROUGH N CENTRAL WATERS UNTIL 1200 UTC SUN. THE 1200 GEFS MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING...SHOWING OVER A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES THROUGH 0600 UTC SUN BEFORE DROPPING DOWN TO 0 PERCENT. OTHERWISE...THE BIG STORY IN THE ATLC IS THE LARGE SWELL OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT W OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS TO 22 FT CAN BE FOUND IN THE GALE WARNING AREA AND SEAS OVER 12 FT LIE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION N OF 24N E OF 76W THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THESE CONDITIONS AS WELL AS THE 1256 UTC JASON2 PASS. N SWELL TO 22 FT WILL PERSIST OVER NE WATERS INTO MON BEFORE SHIFTING NE AND SUBSIDING. THE 1200 UTC MWW3 AND THE 0000 UTC EC WAVE MODEL WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND THE OBSERVATIONS TODAY...AND REMAIN SO OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUE. A NEW FRONT MOVES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN WATERS INTO LATE WED. THE 1200 UTC UKMET AND NAVGEM ARE SLOWER. THE FORECAST RELIES ON THE MORE RELIABLE MODELS AND USES THE GFS EXPLICITLY. SE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 9- 11 FT IN NW WATERS. SAW NO REASON TO STAY FROM THE 1200 GFS AND MWW3 WITH THE FORECAST HERE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... THE 1414 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING. THE 1200 UTC GFS AND UKMET CARRIED 30 KT WINDS AT 1200 UTC WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM DID NOT. THE GFS MAINTAINS WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING HOURS HERE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE THE UKMET DROPS THEM TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE BY MON AFTERNOON. THE TENDENCY IN THE MODELS IS FOR WINDS TOO WEAK ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT PERIOD OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW WITHOUT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WILL SUGGEST THE NEXT SHIFT BEEFS UP VALUES HERE NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING HOURS AT LEAST THROUGH MON MORNING. ELSEWHERE N SWELL IS THE STORY IN THE ATLC PASSAGES AND SW N ATLC..WITH SEAS TO 12 FEET EXPECTED BY SUN NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE VERY GRADUALLY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS TUE NIGHT AND LIE FROM W CUBA TO THE BORDER OF BELIZE AND MEXICO BY LATE WED NIGHT. THE 1200 UTC GFS AND MWW3 FORECAST SEEMS ACCEPTABLE HERE AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE STRONGER NAVGEM AND UKMET COMPARED TO THE WEAKER 0000 UTC ECMWF. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED S OF 26N W OF 94W MON...GMZ017 AND GMZ023. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .GALE WARNING N OF 29N E OF 68W...AMZ115. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER