000 AGXX40 KNHC 070635 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 AM EST THU MAR 07 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES IS BUILDING OFF THE TEXAS COAST...FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF YESTERDAY. THE FRONT IS LARGELY STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A PORTION MOVING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SAGGING SOUTH WESTERN INTO CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INDICATING A DEEP LAYER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. FOR SUN INTO MON...THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG MAJOR MODELS SHOWING THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SE TO S RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN GULF SAT INTO SUN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A TRAILING FRONT PUSHING OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE SUN AND REACHING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE FAR SW GULF BY MON AFTERNOON. STRONG NW TO N FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT... ESPECIALLY DOWN THE MEXICAN COAST WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE THIS MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT IS STALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...ALTHOUGH PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING...BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE THROUGH FRI. THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE THROUGH FRI WILL BE FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE S CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN...MAINLY S OF 15N AND W OF 65W. THIS DRIVER WILL BE HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0224 UTC INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT N WINDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...FUELED IN PART BY THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH SOUTH OF JAMAICA. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS EASTWARD AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE...WW3 AND ECWAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES NORTHERLY SWELL WITH HEIGHTS TO 12 FT WILL PUSH INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THIS WEEKEND...AND THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LOW PRES AREA OF THE VIRGINIA COAST EXTENDS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 31N67W TO CENTRAL CUBA. STRONG WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT...AND BUOY 41002 NEAR 32N75W IS REPORTING PEAK 10M WINDS TO GALE FORCE. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0226 UTC INDICATED A BROAD SWATH OF WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT APPROACHING GALE FORCE...MAINLY N OF 29N. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC ZONES 111...113...AND 115 AS A RESULT. EARLIER SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS TO 45 KT BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR 28N76W...IN CONTRAST TO THE ASCAT AND REPORTS FROM BUOY 41010...ADRIFT NEAR 29N76W...WHICH INDICATED THAT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LIKELY JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. HOWEVER GIVEN THE ONSET OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS...IT IS LIKELY THAT HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR IS MIXING TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AS FAR S AS 28N. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD...REACHING FROM 31N59W TO EASTERN CUBA BY LATE TODAY...FROM 31N50W TO HISPANIOLA BY LATE FRI...AND FROM 31N48W TO THE MONA PASSAGE BY LATE SAT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE TONIGHT INTO FRI...BUT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND THE MID/UPPER LOW N OF THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING SURGE TO THE SURFACE WINDS BY LATE FRI...ALLOWING GALE CONDITIONS TO REINITIATE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AMZ115 BY LATE FRI INTO SAT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION STARTING LATE SAT AS THE DRIVING LOW PRES N OF THE AREA SHIFTS FARTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. LARGE SWELL OF WILL BUILD TO AN IMPRESSIVE 15 TO 20 FT N OF 27N BEHIND THE FRONT...MIGRATING EASTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE FRONTS PROGRESSION IN THE AREA OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. NW SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT WILL REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS 21N E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH EARLY FRI...FOLLOWED BY N TO NE SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE AREA OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS SAT THROUGH MON. THESE LARGE SWELLS OF 8 FT OR GREATER ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT PUERTO RICO AND NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS SAT EVENING... SPREADING THROUGH THE ATLC/CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THEREAFTER. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .GALE WARNING AMZ111-113-115. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN