000 AGXX40 KNHC 060737 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 AM EST WED MAR 06 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO THE FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ WILL SWEEP SE OF THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALONG WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION ARE TOGETHER ALLOWING WINDS TO REACH GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH MID MORNING. GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS THIS MORNING ON COASTAL RADARS...AND OFF THE COAST OF NE MEXICO...BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOTED. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INDICATING A DEEP LAYER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. FOR SUN INTO MON...THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG MAJOR MODELS SHOWING THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SE TO S RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN GULF SAT INTO SUN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A TRAILING FRONT PUSHING OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE SUN AND REACHING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE FAR SW GULF BY MON AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY STRONG NW TO N FLOW DOWN THE MEXICAN COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... THE A TRAILING END OF A COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH TODAY...LEAVING GENERALLY MODERATE NE TO E FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A 0244 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT OFF COLOMBIA...WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT...THEN MAKE SLOW PROGRESS S THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN...EVENTUALLY STALLING FROM HAITI TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE FRI...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SAT. THE RIDGE THAT FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY OFF THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND NICARAGUA...AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SAT THROUGH SUN. NORTHERLY SWELL TO 9 FT WILL PUSH INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ALONG WITH PLUMES GETTING THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES SAT INTO SUN AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... SW WINDS ARE INCREASING OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA N OF 29N AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH N FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA. REPORTS FROM BUOY 41012 INDICATE PEAK WINDS ARE UP TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0248 UTC INDICATED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT N OF 30N W OF 78W. THE REPORTS APPEAR TO BE SUPPORT 21 UTC SREF GUIDANCE THAT INDICATED HIGH PROBABILITY OF WINDS TO GALE FORCE STARTING BY 06 UTC OVER THE WATERS N OF 30N...SWEEPING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT REACHING AS FAR AS 70W BY 21 UTC TODAY. IN ADDITION TO SW GALES WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL FOLLOW WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 30N THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING...SREF AND OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE AREA N OF 31N WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS. NONETHELESS...THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC ZONES 113 AND 115 WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY CONDUCIVE FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N65W THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY THU...FROM 31N58W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE THU...AND FROM 31N50W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATE FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD 15 TO 20 FT MIGRATING EASTWARD N OF 27N BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AREA OF 20 TO 30 KT WINDS. NW SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT WILL REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS 21N E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH EARLY FRI...FOLLOWED BY N TO NE SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE AREA OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS SAT THROUGH MON. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING GMZ023 EARLY THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .GALE WARNING AMZ111-113-115. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN