000 AGXX40 KNHC 051851 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST TUE MAR 05 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RETREAT TO THE E AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH THROUGH 26N87W TO 23N95W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPROXIMATELY 90-120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 26N94W TO THE SW GULF NEAR 21N97W THIS EVENING...THEN FROM SW FLORIDA TO 22N94W TO 18N94W IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS HAS INCREASED FORECAST WINDS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST BEHIND THE FRONT TO GALE FORCE AND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES (GEFS AND SREF) BOTH SHOW A BRIEF EPISODE OF GALE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING IN GMZ017 AT 00 UTC THIS EVENING ...SPREADING TO GMZ023 LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF THE BASIN WED NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM TEXAS...DIMINISHING WINDS FROM W TO E. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THU... MIGRATING VERY SLOWLY TO OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. MAINLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN THE W GULF SAT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...WITH FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF BY SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH MAY ENTER THE FAR NW GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... A DECAYING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA. THE CARIBBEAN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WHILE THE TROPICAL N ATLC PORTION CONTINUES TO THE E. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF HISPANIOLA TO THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA AS INDICATED BY A MORNING ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. MAINLY MODERATE TO NE WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTRACT TOWARDS THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICAN COAST WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES NE OF THE CARIBBEAN WEAKENS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE ATLC. THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT WILL SNEAK INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND CUBA WED NIGHT... DISSIPATING ALONG 19N/20N THU. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SAT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL AMERICA AND SEMI-PERMANENT LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY EXCITEMENT WILL BE IN THE WATERS N OF 19N WHERE THE TAIL END OF THE ATLC PORTION OF THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SKIRT THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WIND SHIFT. SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY 4-7 FT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL...WITH A PULSE OF LARGE NW SWELL ENTERING THE NORTHERN WATERS BY THE WEEKEND. WW3 GUIDANCE HAS 8-13 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY SUN. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS IN AMZ127 FROM 22N55W TO NEAR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH E TO ALONG 55W BY WED...THEN MAY MOVE BACK TO THE NW THROUGH THE AREA BRIEFLY AS A WARM FRONT WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE 1023 MB HIGH PRES IS NEAR 28N77W WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE NW WATERS W OF 70W. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE E OF 70W AS INDICATED BY MORNING SCATTEROMETER DATA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER...MOVING E OF 65W WED AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE NW PORTION THIS EVENING...RAPIDLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE N OF 28N AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE FRONT BREACHES AMZ111 FROM GA/FL AT THAT SAME TIME...EXTENDING FROM 31N77W TO NEAR FORT PIERCE FLORIDA EARLY WED MORNING...FROM 30N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS THU MORNING...AND FINALLY E OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY SAT MORNING. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD E INTO AMZ113-AM115 N OF 28N WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...ENDING IN AMZ115 THU AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL STEM FROM DEEPENING AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRES N OF 31N. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL FRONTAL TROUGH LIKE BOUNDARIES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASIN AROUND THIS LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS EXPECTED SAT IN AMZ115 AS THE LOW SINKS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND. IF THE LOW MAKES THIS MOVE TO THE S SOONER THE GALE FORCE WINDS ENDING THU AFTERNOON MAY CONTINUE THROUGH FRI STRAIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. VERY LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BE GENERATED BY A PERSISTENT AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 20 FT ALONG 31N WED NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL COVER ALL SW N ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS ZONES BY SAT MORNING...IMPACTING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND ATLC PASSAGES SAT AND SUN. WW3NFC ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SHOW MODEST CHANCE FOR 12 FT SEAS TO REACH THESE ISLANDS SUN...WHICH IS ABOUT 1-2 FT ABOVE WW3 AND MORE IN LINE WITH ECWAVE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING GMZ017-023. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .GALE WARNING AMZ111-113-115. .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AMZ115 SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY