000 AGXX40 KNHC 050814 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 AM EST TUE MAR 05 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1023 MB HIGH SHIFTING SLOWLY E ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR INCREASING RETURN FLOW ACROSS ALL BUT FAR ERN GULF. SLY WINDS 20-25 KT PRESENTLY PREVAIL N OF 24N W OF 93.5W WITH BUOYS...AND RECENT ALTIMETER PASS INDICATING SEAS 7-9 FT ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. RECENT 0308 ASCAT PASS SHOWED SE TO S WINDS 20-25 KT N OF 19W AND W OF 95W...KICKING UP SEAS ACROSS THE SW AND ACROSS MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS TO AROUND 6 FT. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISHING A BIT BY SUNRISE AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES TEXAS COAST...MOVING OFFSHORE AFTER 12Z...AND REACHING W FL PANHANDLE TO TUXPAN MEXICO BY 00Z THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING SE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO FAR WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 00Z THU...AND SE OF THE BASIN BY THU MORNING. STRONG NLY FLOW 20-30 KT WILL SPILL DOWN THE TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTS W OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MINIMAL GALES BRIEFLY FORECAST BY GFS 00-06Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GFS IS ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS AND AM HOLDING OFF ON GALE WARNING ATTM. SEAS TO BUILD 6-8 FT BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT..EXCEPT 9-10 FT ALONG MEXICAN COAST TONIGHT IN AREA OF MAX ~30 KT WIND. MODELS SUGGESTING A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AND-/OR MODEST SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE PORTIONS AND WILL INCREASE WEATHER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE. DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS FROM W TO E TO BEGIN WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO THE NW GULF FROM TEXAS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE NE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS BY SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED SE ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM NRN VIRGIN ISLANDS W-SW TO 15.5N73W THEN SW AS WWD DRIFTING WARM FRONT TO NEAR PANAMA ALONG 80W. WEAK PRE FRONTAL TROUGH JUST AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS NE CARIB. PR AND USVI STATIONS REPORTING VERY GUSTY N WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT WITH AND BEHIND FRONT. WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BASIN NW OF FRONT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER...WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE VERY SLOWLY. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RACE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AND GRADUALLY LAY MORE ENE TO WSW ACROSS THE NRN CARIB NEXT 24-48 HRS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HIGH PRES SHIFT E OFF OF FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MOVE N OF CENTRAL CARIB BY THIS EVENING TO INCREASE GRADIENT ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL CARIB...WITH NE TO E WINDS 20-25 KT AND UP TO 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL SHRINK IN COVERAGE TO S OF 14N BY WED EVENING AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND RETREATS TO THE E AHEAD OF GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. THE TAIL END OF THAT FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT...DISSIPATING ALONG 19N ON THU. A BRIEF WIND SHIFT AND SPURT 15-20 KT WINDS IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE LEE OF CUBA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MEANWHILE...N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS WILL EXIST WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WED NIGHT INTO FRI WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRES STRETCHED OUT ALONG INTERIOR CENTRAL AMERICA AND SEMI-PERMANENT LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH BUILDING NW SWELL BLEEDING THROUGH THE CARIB PASSAGES STARTING SAT. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY EXCITEMENT WILL BE IN THE WATERS N OF 19N WHERE THE TAIL END OF THE ATLC PORTION OF THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SKIRT THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WIND SHIFT. SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY 4-7 FT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL...WITH A PULSE OF LARGE NW SWELL ENTERING THE WATERS N OF 19N/20N BY THE WEEKEND. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE SW N ATLC THROUGH THE WEEK...HIGHLIGHTED BY A DEEP LAYERED LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF HATTERAS WED AND GRADUALLY SHIFT E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS GRADUALLY COMING INTO ALIGNMENT...WITH ECMWF STILL A FEW DEGREES TO THE S OF THE GFS WITH LOW CENTER ON THU BEFORE IT REORGANIZES AND MOVES SE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN. GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL POSITION AND WAVE FIELD BY THU...WHILE MORE SRN POSITION OF LOW YIELDS SEAS 2-3 FT HIGHER ACROSS E AND SE WATERS THU THROUGH SAT. AS STATED...MODELS COMING BETTER INTO SYNC AND A 50-50 BLEND IN BOTH WIND AND SEAS IS LIKELY YIELDING A VERY REASONABLE SOLUTION. GALES ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS ASSOCIATED FRONT ACROSS NW PORTIONS STARTING AT 06Z TONIGHT AND SHIFTING E AHEAD AND BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THU BEFORE LOW REORGANIZES AND GALES BRIEFLY LIFT N OF AREA THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THEN SHIFT SE AGAIN INTO CENTRAL ATLC WATERS LATE FRI. FIRST PULSE OF NW SWELL BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BUILD SEAS 10-18 FT ACROSS NW HALF BY 12Z THU AND REACH THE GREATER ANTILLES AND N COASTS OF CARIB ISLANDS BY 00-06Z FRI THEN SECONDARY PULSE OF LARGER AND STRONGER NNW SWELL TO SPREAD DOWN INTO REGIONAL WATERS EARLY SAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING THE N COASTS OF CARIB ISLANDS EARLY SAT. WAVE HEIGHTS 20 FT AND GREATER EXPECTED TO REACH S TO 27.5N BY 12Z SAT AND SHIFT SE AND REACH TO 25.5N ALONG 56W BY 12Z SUN. WW3NFC ENSEMBLE PROBS SHOW MODEST CHANCE FOR 12 FT SEAS TO REACH NE CARIB ISLANDS SUN...WHICH IS ABOUT 2-3 FT ABOVE WW3 AND MORE IN LINE WITH ECWAVE. THUS I CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD ECWAVE OUTPUT. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .GALE WARNING AMZ111 N OF 28N 06 UTC WED THROUGH 06 UTC THU. .GALE WARNING AMZ113 N OF 28N 12 UTC WED THROUGH 00 UTC FRI. .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AMZ115 N OF 28N 00 UTC THU THROUGH 00 UTC SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING