000 AGXX40 KNHC 040801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST MON MAR 04 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1024 MB HIGH HAS SHIFTED INTO N CENTRAL GULF WITH RETURN FLOW TO 20 KT ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS NW PORTIONS W OF 95W. MODERATE AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING NWLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE FAR E AND SE GULF ATTM WITH SEAS ABATING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER QUICKLY N THEN NE 10 KT OR LESS BY MIDDAY...AND INCREASE ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES TREKKING E ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO MS VALLEY. WINDS NW PORTIONS TO INCREASE 20-25 KT BY AFTERNOON AND EXPAND NE TO W PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE...WITH SEAS 7-9 FT ACROSS TEXAS WATERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND 5-7 FT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL WATERS. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE TUE MORNING INTO EARLY TUE AFTERNOON...STRETCHING FROM NEAR MOBILE BAY TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO TUE EVENING...THEN FROM STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO FAR WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED EVENING... PUSHING SE OF THE GULF BY WED NIGHT. A SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS...LOCALLY TO 30 KT ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY WED EVENING AS HIGH PRES REBUILDS IN FROM THE N. A NE TO SW RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF THU INTO FRI...ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW TO SET UP AGAIN IN THE NW GULF BY LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL HAITI TO E CENTRAL PANAMA THIS MORNING WITH BROAD CONVERGENCE ZONE ABOUT 180 NM TO W OF BOUNDARY WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. A 0324 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A FEW WIND VECTORS TO GALE FORCE ALONG THE NICARAGUAN COAST...WITH OTHERWISE THE AREA WAS NOT SAMPLED WELL...AGAIN. GALE AREA EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 30 KT S OF 13.5N W OF FRONT THIS MORNING WITH SEAS THERE REMAINING 9-13 FT THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING 8-10 FT TODAY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MONA PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND THEN ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND STALLING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TUE AND WED...WHILE SW PORTIONS OF THE FRONT DRIFT WWD AS A LLVL EQUATORIAL ELY WIND SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE SRN CARIB AND S AMERICA NEXT 24-36 HRS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...UP TO 30 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...TUE MORNING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...WHILE STRONG NELY FLOW 20-25 KT FUNNELS THROUGH THE N CARIB PASSAGES. AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFT W TO ALONG 80W BY WED AFTERNOON-EVENING...NORTHERLY WINDS 20-30 KT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA THROUGH FRI WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAINS TIGHT. MEANWHILE...TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH THU THROUGH FRI AS ANOTHER COLD SWEEPS BY N OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WEAKENING HIGH PRES TO THE N. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN N OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...THE TAIL END SHOULD MANAGE TO SNEAK S OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...DISSIPATING IN THE FAR N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY FRI MORNING. A BRIEF SPURT OF NORTHERLY 20 KT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE LEE OF CUBA...AND ALSO BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE ELY WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE ONLY EXCITEMENT WILL BE THE ATLC PORTION OF THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WHICH WILL CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WED RESULTING IN A BRIEF WIND SHIFT. SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY 4-7 FT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL...WITH A PULSE OF LARGE NW SWELL ENTERING THE WATERS N OF 19N/20N BY NEXT WEEKEND. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE SW N ATLC THROUGH THE WEEK. THE EASTERNMOST COLD FRONT CURRENTLY REACHES FROM 31N55W TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. A 0148 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED A REINFORCING TROUGH ABOUT 210 NM BEHIND THIS FRONT N OF 26N...WHILE A THIRD REINFORCING BOUNDARY EXTENDED FRONT NEAR BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS. THE 0148 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTED NWLY WINDS 25-30 KT BEHIND THE THIRD BOUNDARY...WITH SEAS LIKELY 9-12 FT ACROSS THIS AREA. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SWEEP EWD NEXT FEW DAYS AND WEAKEN...WITH BRIEF GALES N OF 28N TONIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE THIRD BOUNDARY AS IT REACHES 65W. THE LEADING FRONT WILL SINK SE THROUGH PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND DRIFT SLOWLY INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TUE-WED. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THESE BOUNDARIES FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUE...SLIDING E ALONG 27N THROUGH WED. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E...FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW WILL SET UP QUICKLY IN THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN TUE NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING FLOW PRES APPROACHING THE MID ATLC COASTS...WITH ANOTHER GALE WARNING LIKELY NEEDED FOR AMZ111 AND AMZ113 N OF 29N EARLY WED...EXPANDING TO AMZ115 BY THU. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THESE WINDS...ARRIVING NOW 06-12 UTC WED AND ALSO EXPANDS S TO AT LEAST 27N. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE THEN THE GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED EARLIER AND EXPANDED TO THE S. THIS ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STEM FROM A DEVELOPING PARENT LOW PRES SYSTEM N OF 31N. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N78W TO CAPE CANAVERAL WED MORNING...FROM 31N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED EVENING...THEN FROM 31N64W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS THU MORNING. FRESH TO EVEN GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW N OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND ITS INFLUENCE. GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAJECTORY AND TIMING OF THIS LOW...BUT WITH ECMWF STILL SLIGHTLY S OF THE OTHER MODELS THU. VERY LARGE NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE FROM NW WATERS EARLY THU AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF REMAINING ATLC WATERS BY THU NIGHT...WITH SEAS 15-20 FT PLUS N OF 25N BY 12Z FRI...AND SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS BY FRI EVENING. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .GALE WARNING AMZ113-115 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AMZ111 N OF 29N WED. .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AMZ113 N OF 29N WED THROUGH THU. .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AMZ115 N OF 29N THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING