000 AGXX40 KNHC 021932 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 232 PM EST SAT MAR 2 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH SWEEPING SE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF WITH SEAS TO 9 FT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE LATEST WW3 GUIDANCE HAS COME UP A BIT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE VALUES OF THE ECWAVE...BUILDING SEAS TO 8-10 FT FROM THE NW TO S CENTRAL PORTIONS THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFTING SE INTO THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FL BY SUN MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE BEGINNING SUN NIGHT IN THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF SPREADING EASTWARD MON AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SETUP BY SUN EVENING IN THE NW GULF...QUICKLY INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG OVERNIGHT SUN INTO EARLY MON. A LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS MON MORNING WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUE MORNING...QUICKLY SHIFTING SE OF THE GULF BY LATE WED. EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING BY THE END OF THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 18N83W TO THE NE CORNER OF NICARAGUA WILL PUSH EASTWARD REACHING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH 17N77W TO 13N80W TO 10N83W BY SUN MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL COMMENCE IN ZONE AMZ019 THIS EVENING...SPREADING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NICARAGUAN COAST AND ZONE AMZ029 LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN AMZ019 BY SUN MORNING...CONTINUING IN AMZ029 UNTIL LATE SUN AFTERNOON. SEAS OF UP TO 13 FT WILL ACCOMPANY THESE GALE FORCE WINDS...AND THE N COAST OF PANAMA WILL BE POUNDED LATE SUN... WITH UNUSUALLY LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL WITH SEAS PEAKING AT 11-13 FT S OF 10N THERE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT STRETCHES FROM 18N73W TO 16N76W TO 09N80W BY SUN EVENING...THEN WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES FROM THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W TO 16N75W TO 09N77W BY MON MORNING. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUE SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THU...AND ALSO ALONG THE NICARAGUAN COAST AGAIN WHERE WINDS MAY BE NEAR GALE FORCE BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA...TROUGHING IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS TO THE E...AND THE HIGH TO THE N OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MODERATE E-SE WINDS EXCEPT A BRIEF WIND SHIFT IN THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION BEHIND THE DECAYING TAIL OF EACH FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEAS WILL BE 4-6 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... AN OLD COLD FRONT IS BECOMING ILL-DEFINED FROM 25N65W TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. THIS FRONT WILL BE OVERTAKEN AND WILL MERGE WITH A NEW RE-INFORCING COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND ON SUN. FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WILL FOLLOW THE REINFORCING FRONT MAINLY N OF 26N/27N...WITH SOUTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS PRECEDING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE NEW FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUN MORNING...THEN FROM 31N52W TO 24N62W TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N86W BY MON MORNING. LARGE NW SWELL OF 12-14 FT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BEGINNING LATE MON WITH WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AND SEAS SUBSIDING THROUGH TUE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE NW ZONES LATE TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM 31N79W TO CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA BY WED MORNING...THEN FROM 31N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY THU MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE TIED TO DEEPENING LOW PRES N OF THE AREA WHICH IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEAS TO OVER 20 FT N OF 30N BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST GALE FORCE WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 29N BEGINNING WED AFTERNOON IN AMZ111 AND AMZ113 ...SPREADING EASTWARD TO AMZ115 THU. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .GALE WARNING AMZ019-AMZ029. SW N ATLC... .NONE. .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AMZ111 WED. .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AMZ113 WED AND THU. .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AMZ115 THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY