000 AGXX40 KNHC 010810 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 AM EST FRI MAR 01 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS S PORTIONS OF GULF EXTENDS FROM NW BAHAMAS THROUGH N PART OF STRAITS TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS MORNING AND WILL BE FORCED SE THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL BY AROUND 24 HOURS AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH DIGS S INTO THE GULF AND SWEEPS E ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH MON. AMPLE LLVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW LLVL INVERSION NEAR H85 PRODUCING STRATIFORM PRECIP ACROSS W AND SW PARTS BEHIND FRONT WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCING SCATTERED ELEVATED RW- ACROSS SE PORTIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT ATTM. HIGH PRES BEHIND FRONT ACROSS TEXAS AND NE MEXICO WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD AND BE REINFORCED BY RIDGE DROPPING INTO CENTRAL U.S. FROM GREAT PLAINS TO INCREASE PRES GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT...WITH STRONG NW TO N WINDS W OF 92W THIS MORNING SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF TONIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT TO SHIFT SE THROUGH SUN. SEAS RESPONSE BY BUILDING 8-10 FT BEHIND FRONT ACROSS SW PORTIONS TODAY THEN 7-9 FT ACROSS SE HALF BY SAT AFTERNOON..AND BUILDING TO 8-12 FT SE PORTIONS BY SUN NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR GALES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY SUN...WITH ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH MON AND TUE AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR TEXARKANA MON NIGHT AND DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLIER IS ALREADY DRIFTING SE ACROSS FAR NW CARIB AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO NUDGE IT SOUTHEAST NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH TO DIG INTO GULFMEX NEXT FEW DAYS WILL FORCE BOTH BOUNDARIES SE THROUGH NW CARIB TODAY...WITH SECOND FRONT GRADUALLY BECOMING DIFFUSE WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BRIDGING ACROSS AND SPILLING S ACROSS W CARIB AND DOWN COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND TO PANAMA BY SAT AFTERNOON. WE HAVE BEEN DESCRIBING THE BOUNDARIES MERGING...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY ACTUALLY MERGE PER LATEST MODEL OUTPUT...WITH LEADING BOUNDARY REACHING WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR PANAMA CANAL BY 00Z MON. MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED POTENTIAL FOR GALES BEHIND FIRST BOUNDARY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...AND ARE NOW IN FULL AGREEMENT...WITH 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PROBS NOW SHOWING 100% ALONG NICARAGUA COAST BY 06Z SUN. WE HAVE BEEN HESITANT TO PULL TRIGGER ON THIS EVENT...GIVEN ITS RARE NATURE...BUT FEEL IT IS NOW TIME AND WILL ISSUE GALES FOR WATERS OFF N COAST OF HONDURAS SE THROUGH WATERS OFF NICARAGUA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN. SEAS TO BUILD 9-12 FT BEHIND SE SHIFTING BOUNDARY WITHIN THESE STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS AND SPREAD SE TO N COAST OF PANAMA BY 00Z MON....WHILE PERSISTENT NNW FLOW THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL MAINTAINS 8-12 FT SEAS ACROSS NW PART OF BASIN AND THROUGH CHANNEL ALSO THROUGH 00Z MON. ELSEWHERE...TRADES AND SEAS WILL BELOW NORMAL WITH ATLC NW TO N SWELL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH E CARIB PASSAGES. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA ACROSS NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL SHIFT SE AS DESCRIBED ABOVE AND NEARLY DISSECT FORECAST AREA IN TWO NEARLY EQUAL PARTS NW AND SE OF THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT BEFORE MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS SAT...THEN FINALLY BEING FORCED INTO SE PORTIONS SUN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MODERATE NWLY FLOW BEHIND CURRENT FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED EARLY SAT BY SURGE OF COLDER AIR STREAMING OFF NORTH AMERICA AND WILL REINFORCE THE TEMPERATURE AND PRES GRADIENTS ACROSS NW PORTIONS...SHIFTING SE TO CENTRAL PARTS BY SUN...WITH BOUNDARY REACHING WINDWARD PASSAGE BY 00Z MON. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO SE U.S. SUN AND MON WILL ALLOW STRONG NW WINDS 25-30 KT TO SPREAD ACROSS FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS W OF 75W BY SUN EVENING AND BUILD SEAS 8-10 FT ACROSS OPEN ATLC NE OF BAHAMAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY TUE W OF 70W AS NEW LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS NW ATLC AND GENERATES HIGH SEAS TO SWEEP SE ACROSS NE PORTIONS TUE-WED. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .GLW...AMZ019-029. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING