000 AGXX40 KNHC 271840 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 PM EST WED FEB 27 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DRIFT SE OF THE AREA THROUGH THU. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER TEXAS TONIGHT AND THU WILL PUSH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY FRI. THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST BETWEEN POLAR AND TROPICAL AIR MASSES WILL BECOME MORE DISTINCT AS THE COLD AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD...CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN GULF THU EVENING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT INTO NE MEXICO FRI AND SAT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE WESTERN GULF AND ALLOW STRONG N WINDS TO DEVELOP W OF 90W FRI THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS/WW3 MODEL SHOWS LARGE AREA OF STRONG NW WINDS DEVELOPING THE EASTERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH A FAVORABLE SUSTAINED FETCH BUILDING COMBINED SEAS TO 12-14 FT. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH MON AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO NE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL DRIFT SE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU NIGHT. A SURGE OF COLDER POLAR AIR WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY FRI AND OVERTAKE THE FIRST FRONT. MERGED FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN AS UNUSUALLY STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS DEEP INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. GFS AND ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE UNUSUALLY STRONG N WINDS SOUTH OF 20N SAT THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH NEAR-GALE CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE SWATH OF WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT CONSIDERING RARE NATURE OF THIS HIGH WIND EVENT...EXPECT WINDS GREATER THAN 30 KT BUT LESS THAN 35 KT. COMBINED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12-15 FT S OF 15N W OF 78W SUN AND MON...WHICH WILL IMPACT OCEAN GOING VESSEL COMMERCE TRANSITING THROUGH THE PANAMA CANAL. WEAK HIGH PRES IN THE WESTERN ATLC WILL SHIFT E AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...AND ALLOW FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC REGION THROUGH MON WHILE MOST SERIOUS MARINE THREAT IS W OF 75W. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... NORTHERN PORTION OF COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N74W TO FLORIDA KEYS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH FRI WHILE SOUTHERN PORTION REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHERN CUBA. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N69W TO FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT... FROM 31N64W ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NORTHERN CUBA THU AND FROM 31N57W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI THEN WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH SAT. SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SE OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRI WHILE YET ANOTHER SURGE OF EVEN COLDER AIR PUSHES EASTWARD SAT AND SUN. EXPECT W-NW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD AIR SURGING OFF NORTH AMERICA TO PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT FAR SE PORTION THROUGH SUN. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO SE U.S. SUN AND MON WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP W OF 70W AND INCREASE SEAS TO 12-14 FT N OF BAHAMAS MON. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL