000 AGXX40 KNHC 230818 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 320 AM EST SAT FEB 23 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N88W TO 24N98W WAITING FOR A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE TODAY THAT WILL MAKE IT REACH FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT WHERE IT STALLS AGAIN LATE SUN. FRONT LIFTS BACK N AS WARM FRONT LATE SUN. MODEL GUIDANCE BRING SECOND COLD FRONT INTO NW GULF EARLY MON... WITH NEAR GALE OR MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT ALONG COAST OF SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST AND SPREADING S ALONG COAST OF VERACRUZ LATE MON THEN DIMINISHING MON NIGHT. GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE FASTER AND STRONGER THAN UKMET OR ECMWF...BUT LOOK REASONABLE ON WINDS MORE THAN NWW3 ON SEAS. FORECAST ATTENUATES SEA RELUCTANTLY AS ALL ...ALBEIT SUSPECTING SHORT DURATION AND RESTRICTED FETCH MAY ARREST SEAS DEVELOPMENT. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH LATE TUE AS HIGH PRES BEHIND FRONT BUILDS UP. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... LARGE HEALTHY RIDGE OVER SW N ATLC MAINTAINS STEADY FRESH TO STRONG E-NE BREEZE OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... EXACERBATED ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA BY 1008 MB LOW PRES OVER INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. CURRENT GALE CONDITIONS WITH SEAS TO 11 FT EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRES ANCHORING AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE DRIFT EASTWARD FORCED BY COLD FRONT OFF N FLORIDA COAST. OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN...TAIL OF COLD FRONT OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE TIGHTENS PRES GRADIENT TO PROMPT FRESH SE BREEZE WITH SEAS TO 7 FT MOSTLY OVER GULF OF HONDURAS LATE TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH SUN AS COLD FRONT STALLS AND TURNS N EFFECTIVELY FLATTENING PRES GRADIENT. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 4 FT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS RETURN WITH A VENGEANCE MON AS STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUE. FRONT CROSSES YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE BRINGING FRESH N BREEZE AND SEAS TO 8 FT W OF 80W. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES CENTER AT 34N70W MAINTAINS FRESH E-NE AND SEAS 4-6 FT E OF 72W WHILE COLD FRONT APPROACHING OVER N FLORIDA FORCES RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE TO A STRONG BREEZE ALONG FLORIDA E COAST AND N OF BAHAMAS E OF 77W. FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE SUN WITH STRONGEST WINDS N OF 28N AND E OF FRONT. SEAS BUILD TO 12 FT AS FRONT MOVES E OF 55W THROUGH MON. STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE N FLORIDA WATERS TUE. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF FRONT SO MIDDLE OF ROAD APPROACH WAS USED ON FORECAST. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON...GMZ017...GMZ023... CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W....AMZ031. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES