000 AGXX40 KNHC 221847 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 147 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTEROMETER THIS MORNING SHOWED A LONG FETCH OF 25 KT S-SE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE 1200 UTC GFS CENTERED THE 25 KT WINDS MORE TO THE SE THAN THE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTED. THE OBSERVATIONS CAPTURED SEAS TO 7 FT...BUT PROBABLY MISSED THE MAX SEAS. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE HERE FOR THE WIND FIELD AND SEAS INITIALLY TO MATCH THE OBSERVATIONS. THE STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM MOBILE BAY TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WILL RECEIVE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TONIGHT AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT ON SUN. BOTH THE 1200 UTC GFS AND THE 0000 UTC ECMWF MODELS AGREE ON TAKING THE NEXT COLD FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST MON MORNING...WITH NEAR GALE OR MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST OF VERACRUZ LATE MON. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR EXPECTED GALES HERE MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT. A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED FOR THE TIMING SINCE THERE HAS BEEN A LONG-TERM TREND TOWARD A STRONGER/SLOWER SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY TUE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT DOMINATES THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... ONCE AGAIN...SEAS AT BUOY 42057 AND 42058 WERE APPROXIMATELY 2 FEET LOWER THAN THE WW3 AT 1200 UTC. THE 0000 UTC EC WAVE MODEL AGREED WITH THE OBSERVATIONS. SHORT-TERM FORECAST SEAS ADJUSTED HERE BASED ON THE EC WAVE MODEL. THE 0550 UTC OSCAT PASS AND THE 1208 UTC WINDSAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS CONTINUING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS PERSISTENT SE FLOW SHOULD KEEP SEAS AROUND 8 FT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY THROUGH MON BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE WEAK FRONT SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE. HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC. LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DUE TO LOCAL GEOGRAPHIC EFFECTS. AS A RESULT...THE PRES GRADIENT IS STRONG. A MINIMAL GALE WAS SUSPECTED IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS MORNING. THE 1424 UTC ASCAT PASS CLIPPED THE REGION ON THE W SIDE OF THE WARNING AND SHOWED A SOLID AREA OF 30 KT WINDS AFTER THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM. THE ASCAT USUALLY RUNS ABOUT 5 KT TOO LOW AT SPEEDS NEAR GALE FORCE. THE GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR 1200 UTC AND CONTINUES THROUGH MON MORNING. BY TUE...THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE GULF AND SW N ATLC WILL MOVE THE RIDGE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. MAINLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUE. LARGE LONG-PERIOD N SWELL WILL REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF TROPICAL N ATLC SAT...AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO CARIBBEAN PASSAGES SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE 1420 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED GALE CONDITIONS OVER NE WATERS WITH A NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR REINFORCING THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM 31N52W TO 24N64W. SEAS ARE RAPIDLY BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 24 FT NEAR 31N55W TONIGHT AS GALE WINDS SHIFT E OF 55W. RETURN FLOW WILL PICK UP TONIGHT N OF THE BAHAMAS AND INCREASE TO A STRONG BREEZE SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST LATE SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE SUN. STRONGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT E WITH THE FRONT...WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 12 FT AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARD 55W THROUGH MON. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY TRENDED WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO NW WATERS TUE...BUT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. THE LONG-TERM TREND IN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAS BEEN TOWARD A SLOWER MOVING FRONT. THE 1200 UTC GFS AND 0000 UTC ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL TIMING. A BLEND OF THEIR FORECASTS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST FROM SAT ONWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W....AMZ031. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER