000 AGXX40 KNHC 210722 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 222 AM EST THU FEB 21 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STATIONARY FRONT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS REGION FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO COASTAL TEXAS. ASCAT PASS AT 0400 UTC SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN GULF AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEAS ARE AT LEAST 8 FT IN THE NW GULF AND MAY BE APPROACHING 9 FT AS LONG FETCH OF SE WINDS ALLOWS SEAS TO STEADILY INCREASE. INTENSE LOW PRES SYSTEM IN CENTRAL PLAINS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL ALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND CAUSE SE WINDS TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER TODAY N OF 22N W OF 90W. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES SYSTEM REACHES THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MAIN ENERGY PUSHES EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH FRI DRAGS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT TRAILING SW OF THE COLD FRONT INTO A LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 21N99W. GFS MODEL SHOWS STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN NW GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM OF SHORE FROM HOUSTON TO MOBILE. ALSO EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE SW GULF. TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENS FRI NIGHT AND SAT BUT LINGERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY SUN. LOW PRES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF SUN NIGHT WILL RE-ENERGIZE THE BOUNDARY AND ALLOW IT TO LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... WINDSAT AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS SHOW 30 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AROUND 12.0N75.5W. HIGH PRES NE OF THE CARIBBEAN IS SHIFTING EASTWARD...WHICH WILL RELAX THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE TODAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND FRI AS AREA OF HIGHER WINDS CONTRACTS. EXPECT SMALL AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS TO PERSIST NEAR 12.5N74.0W THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A SMALLER AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS WILL CAUSE REGION OF 8-12 FT SEAS TO SHRINK AS WELL...LOCALIZED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH MON. LARGE LONG PERIOD N SWELL WILL REACH NORTHERN PART OF TROPICAL N ATLC SAT...AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES SUN. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT BISECTS THE REGION...EXTENDING FROM 31N67W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS. FRONTAL CHARACTER IS VERY WEAK ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH PRES E OF REGION WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST TODAY WHILE NORTHERN PORTION OF FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY TO THE E AND SOUTHERN PORTION BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST-MOVING PORTION OF FRONT WILL REMAIN N OF 31N...WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS ACTIVE PART OF FRONT SLIDES N THEN E OF THE AREA. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT FOR AREA OF N-NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT N OF 27N E OF 70W...AND AN AREA OF S-SE WINDS DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT SE OF A FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN PERSIST N OF 29N W OF 70W THROUGH SAT NIGHT WHEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT FINALLY PUSHES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TO EXTEND FROM 31N79W TO 30N81W. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N78W TO 29N81W SUN...FROM 31N69W TO 28N80W SUN NIGHT...AND FROM 31N63W TO 28N73W THEN STATIONARY ALONG 28N TO 28N81W EARLY MON. THE BOUNDARY LIFTS N MON AS A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES OVER GEORGIA. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL