000 AGXX40 KNHC 200722 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 222 AM EST WED FEB 20 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT WITH MINIMAL WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH IT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO S OF BROWNSVILLE TX. SURFACE OBS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW LIGHT WINDS S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS N OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY LATER TODAY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 26-27N. INTENSE LOW PRES SYSTEM IN CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND CAUSE SE WINDS TO INCREASE N OF 22N W OF 90W THU... AND BUILD SEAS TO 7-8 FT NEAR TEXAS COAST. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES SYSTEM REACHES THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THU AFTERNOON AND MAIN ENERGY PUSHES EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH FRI WHILE A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT TRAILS SW OF THE COLD FRONT TO A LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 21N99W. GFS MODEL SHOWS STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN NW GULF THU AND THU NIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM OF SHORE FROM HOUSTON TO MOBILE. ALSO EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE SW GULF. TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENS FRI NIGHT AND SAT...BUT LINGERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY SUN. LOW PRES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI SUN WILL RE-ENERGIZE THE BOUNDARY AND ALLOW IT TO LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT LATE SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES CENTERED N-NE OF AREA NEAR 30N60W WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG 31N TODAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE US EAST COAST. LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DUE TO LOCAL GEOGRAPHIC EFFECTS. AS A RESULT...THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THU AFTERNOON AND ALLOW THE AREA OF STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER MOST OF CARIBBEAN TO CONTRACT. EXPECT SMALL AREA OF 30 KT WINDS TO PERSIST NEAR 12.5N 74W THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT SMALLER AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS WILL CAUSE REGION OF 8-12 FT SEAS TO SHRINK AND BECOME LOCALIZED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUN. LARGE LONG PERIOD N SWELL WILL REACH NORTHERN PART OF TROPICAL N ATLC SAT...AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO CARIBBEAN PASSAGES SUN. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... WEAK STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS E OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF NORTHERN FLORIDA EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO SAINT AUGUSTINE. HIGH PRES NE OF THE REGION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NORTHERN PORTION OF FRONT N OF 30N WILL MOVE RAPIDLY E WHILE SOUTHERN PORTION BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY TO SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST-MOVING PORTION OF FRONT WILL BE N OF 31N...WITH MINOR EFFECT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU AS ACTIVE PART OF FRONT SLIDES N OF THE AREA. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT FOR AREA OF N-NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT N OF 27N E OF 70W... AND AREA OF S-SE WINDS DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT SE OF A FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN PERSIST N OF 29N W OF 70W THROUGH SAT NIGHT WHEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT FINALLY PUSHES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TO EXTEND FROM 31N79W TO 30N81W. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N74W TO 28N80W SUN...AND FROM 31N66W TO 26N80W LATE SUN. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL