000 AGXX40 KNHC 180805 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST MON FEB 18 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES OVER THE NE GULF IS SUPPORTING E-SE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE OBS AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0320 UTC SHOW FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS IN THE W GULF...W OF 93W. SOUTHERN PORTION OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL REACH THE TEXAS COAST EARLY TUE MORNING THEN FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME STATIONARY ALONG 26N IN THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE GENERALLY 20 KT OR LESS...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 5-7 FT N OF THE FRONT AND 3-5 FT S OF THE FRONT. INTENSE LOW PRES INDICATED FROM GFS MODEL LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN HISTORIC DUST BOWL REGION NEAR 37N102W THU...WHICH WILL INTENSIFY THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NW GULF AND PRODUCE STRONG SE WINDS FEEDING INTO QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. FRONT WILL DRIFT SE FRI INTO NW WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS REMAINING 6-8 FT OVER LARGE PORTION OF AREA N OF 22N W OF 87W. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... SHEAR LINE EXTENDING FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NICARAGUA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUE THEN BECOME DIFFUSE WED. STRONG NE WINDS POLEWARD OF THE SHEAR LINE WIND GENERATE 10-11 FT COMBINED SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA PRODUCING 7 FT SEAS. HIGH PRES IN NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG 32N THROUGH TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH EASTERN U.S. LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA WILL SUPPORT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR-GALE GREATER THAN 30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 13-15 FT NEAR COLOMBIA COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AND FRI AS THE HIGH N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ATLC. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... STRONG COLD FRONT FROM 31N56W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE ACROSS SE WATERS THROUGH TUE THEN BECOME DIFFUSE WED AND THU. HIGH PRES SHIFTS EASTWARD ALONG 32N INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS WITH LITTLE EFFECT OTHER THAN WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW AFTER FROPA. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA TUE NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT TO 75W. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO 28N81W WED...FROM 31N67W TO 28N70W TO 26N80W WED NIGHT...WEAKEN AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM 28N65W TO 26N80W THU...THEN DISSIPATE FRI. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL