000 AGXX40 KNHC 160759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS COVER THE ENTIRE GULF CURRENTLY WITH MAINLY 2-4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE. A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MOBILE TO CORPUS CHRISTI WILL RAPIDLY DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING...REACHING FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON THEN QUICKLY PUSH SE OF THE GULF THIS EVENING. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT. GEFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT OR GREATER WINDS ARE ZERO FOR THESE AREAS WHILE THE SREF PROBABILITIES SHOW 10 PERCENT AT MOST. THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION DOES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF 30 KT SUSTAINED 10M WINDS SO STRAY 34 KT OR HIGHER WINDS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT FROM W TO E SAT NIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE NW GULF. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE W GULF SUN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND INCREASE THROUGH MON MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST TUE MORNING...EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TUE EVENING...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE WED MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION... EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO SOUTHERN BELIZE THIS EVENING...FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NICARAGUA SUN MORNING THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE SUN EVENING. FRESH TO NEAR-GALE N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 10-12 FT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT WEAKENS...AND SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE...THEN DIMINISH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES FROM 31N69W ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A MUCH STRONGER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION FROM 31N78W TO 27N80W THIS AFTERNOON...FROM 31N67W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUN MORNING...AND FROM 23N65W TO HISPANIOLA MON MORNING...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE MON NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT BY THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO 65W THROUGH SUN EVENING. LARGE NW SWELL TO 18 FT ALONG 31N WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...SLOWLY SUBSIDING EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT SUN NIGHT...AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL DEVELOP S OF 24N MON THROUGH WED WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH NW WATERS WED. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .GALE WARNING...AMZ111-113-115. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL