000 AGXX40 KNHC 151858 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS JUST N OF THE FRONT IN THE SE GULF...BUT A MORE RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IN THIS SAME AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS COVER THE ENTIRE GULF CURRENTLY WITH MAINLY 2-4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE. A STRONG AND VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY DIVE S INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE TONIGHT REACHING FROM 30N87W TO 29N90W TO 26N97W...QUICKLY PUSHING SE OF THE GULF SAT AFTERNOON. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THERE REMAINS A MINOR POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF GALE FORCE WINDS E OF THE COAST OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND ALSO IN THE NE GULF. GEFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT OR GREATER WINDS ARE ZERO FOR THESE AREAS WHILE THE SREF PROBABILITIES SHOW 10 PERCENT AT MOST. THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION DOES SHOW A LARGE ARE OF 30 KT SUSTAINED 10M WINDS SO STRAY 34 KT OR HIGHER WINDS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN CASE GALE WARNINGS NEED TO BE RAISED. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM W TO E BEGINNING SAT EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE RIGHT UNDER THE HIGH IN THE NW GULF LATE SAT NIGHT...PROGRESSING TO THE E. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE W GULF BY SUN AFTERNOON SPREADING EASTWARD WHILE INCREASING BY MON MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST BY EARLY TUE MORNING...EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TUE EVENING...THEN STALLING AND DISSIPATING BY EARLY WED MORNING WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE NE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RETURN FLOW FOR WED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... MORNING AND AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE BASINS...EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INCLUDING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA... AND FRESH TO STRONG IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N. WINDS ARE ALSO LIGHT SE-S IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE SE OF A STALLED OUT FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STALLED OUT FRONT SAT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN...STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO SOUTHERN BELIZE SAT EVENING...THEN FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN HONDURAS SUN MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND BECOME ILL-DEFINED SUN EVENING. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO AT LEAST 11 FT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN N OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT WEAKENS WHICH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. WINDS DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE MON INTO TUE WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE RELAXED. THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION EVEN SHOWS MINIMAL GALE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA MON MORNING THROUGH WED MORNING. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT REACHES FROM 31N70W TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A WEAK 1014 MB AREA OF LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED W OF THE FRONT NEAR 30N75W WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH STRETCHING N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE LOW TO CAPE CANAVERAL. THESE FEATURES WILL SLOWLY MERGE WHILE THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE NE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION FROM 31N78W TO 27N80W SAT AFTERNOON...THEN FROM 31N67W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUN MORNING...AND FROM 23N65W TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA MON MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N BEGINNING SAT EVENING...PROGRESSING EASTWARD TO 65W EVENTUALLY BY SUN INTO SUN EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N/29N WHICH MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THE HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS. LARGE NW SWELL UP TO 18 FT ALONG 31N WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...SLOWLY SUBSIDING EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE SE U.S. SUN NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL SET UP S OF 24N WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHTEST MON THROUGH EARLY WED. ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BREACH THE NW CORNER WED AFTERNOON. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .GALE WARNING...AMZ111-113. .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AMZ115 SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY