000 AGXX40 KNHC 141932 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 233 PM EST THU FEB 14 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED AS OF THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC ANALYSIS AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA TO 24N90W WHERE I ONCE AGAIN BECOMES A COLD FRONT AND EXTENDS TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH COLD AIR NOW FUNNELING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A 1528 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS INDICATED A 120 NM WIDE BAND OF 20-25 KT NLY WINDS N OF THE FRONT WITH FOCUSED 25 KT WINDS IN THE FAR SW BAY OF CAMPECHE. AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OVERNIGHT FRI AND SWEEP RAPIDLY S ABSORBING THE REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ON SAT...WITH THE MERGED FRONT MOVING S OF THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON ...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN YESTERDAYS NWP RUNS. STRONG N TO NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD REACH 20-25 KT...LOCALLY 30 KT WITH NO GALES EXPECTED DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE HIGH ITSELF WHICH PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT CAA IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE GULF SUN WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP W OF 94W LATE SUN. AS HIGH PRES MOVE E OF THE AREA MON RETURN FLOW INCREASES TO 20...LOCALLY 25 KT AND SPREADS OVER MOST OF THE GULF. NWW3 BUILDS SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE NW GULF WITHIN AREAS OF THE LONGEST SE FETCH. NEXT COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST OVERNIGHT SUN AND EARLY MON...IN LINE WITH A COMBINED GFS/ECMWF TIMING...AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BROWNSVILLE BY LATE TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... 1350 AND 1530 UTC ASCAT PASSES CAPTURED THE EDGES OF NE TO E 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. PER NWP FORECASTS...THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS HAS DECREASED AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLANTIC RETREATS TO THE E. MERGED COLD FRONTS IN THE GULF WILL ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SAT AND EXTEND FROM FAR SE CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS EARLY SUN. N TO NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE TO 25-30 KT SUN ACROSS AMZ011/AMZ013 WITH HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. NWW3 CONSISTENT IN BUILDING SEAS BUILD TO 9-10 FT IN THIS REGIME. THE FRONT SLIDES FURTHER SE WEAKENS AND EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO GULF OF HONDURAS BY LATE SUN. ON MON FRESH NE TO E WINDS BEHIND THE DISSIPATING FRONT MERGE WITH AN EXPANDING AREA OF TRADES TO COVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. WITH STRONG HIGH PRES IN PLACE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC...A BROAD AREA OF STRONG TRADES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N68W AND EXTENDS TO 29N74W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO EXTREME SE FLORIDA. A 1344 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS INDICATED SW WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 29N E OF THE FRONT...WITH LIGHT NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE STALLING FRONT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST FRI NIGHT AND OVERTAKE THE REMNANTS OF THE THIS INITIAL FRONT BY LATE SAT. STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS AMZ111/AMZ113 SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND AMZ115 SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SEE WARNINGS BELOW. THE MERGED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO SE CUBA ON SUN THEN STALL ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA MON AND TUE WITH FRESH NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT S OF 25N/26N. SE FLOW INCREASES OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA ON MON IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT APPROACHING THE SE COAST BY LATE TUE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AMZ111...AMZ113 SAT NIGHT AND SUN... AND AMZ115 SUN AND SUN NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY/COBB