000 AGXX40 KNHC 131912 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 214 PM EST WED FEB 13 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA FLORIDA THROUGH 26N90W TO JUST N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AS OF 15 UTC. A 1550 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS CAPTURED A SMALL AREA OF 30 KT JUST NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT. OVERALL THE WINDS N OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THE FRONT IS SLIDING SE AND IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE SE GULF FROM FT MYERS TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THU INTO FRI. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OVERNIGHT FRI AND MOVE RAPIDLY S ABSORBING THE REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY FRONT BY LATE SAT WITH THE MERGED FRONT MOVING S OF THE AREA SAT EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES IN THE SW GULF HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE 12 UTC NWP MODELS. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE HIGH ITSELF WHICH PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT CAA IN THE SOUTHERN GULF...ADDITIONALLY THERE ARE NO ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR GALES IN THE AREA FOR SAT. HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE GULF SUN WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP W OF 94W LATE SUN. AS HIGH PRES MOVE E OF THE AREA MON RETURN FLOW INCREASES TO 20...LOCALLY 25 KT AND SPREADS OVER MOST OF THE GULF. NWW3 BUILDS SEAS TO 8-9 FT OVER THE NW GULF WITHIN AREAS OF THE LONGEST SE FETCH. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... 1410 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED NE TO E WINDS OF 25-30 KT IN A 120 NM WIDE BAND OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THUS REFLECTING THE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES THERE. ADDITIONALLY A 1550 UTC PASS CAPTURED FRESH SE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS EXTENDING INTO BELIZE. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THU. LONG PERIOD N SWELLS PROPAGATING S THROUGH THE NE PASSAGES AND THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS HAVE REACHED THE N COAST OF S AMERICA. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE ON THU. MERGED COLD FRONTS IN THE GULF WILL ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SAT AND EXTEND FROM SE CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS EARLY SUN. N TO NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE TO 25-30 KT SUN ACROSS AMZ011/AMZ013 INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEAS BUILD TO 9-10 FT IN THIS REGIME. THE FRONT SLIDES FURTHER SE WEAKENS AND EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO GULF OF HONDURAS BY LATE MON WITH FRESH NE TO E WINDS MERGING WITH AN EXPANDING AREA OF TRADES TO COVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BY THAT TIME. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED OVER THE FAR NW WATERS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM 31N73W TO SE FLORIDA TONIGHT...THEN STALL IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA ON THU INTO FRI. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GEORGIA EARLY SAT MORNING AND OVERTAKE REMNANTS OF THE INITIAL FRONT BY LATE SAT. STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS AMZ111/AMZ113 SUN AND AMZ115 SUN NIGHT...SEE WARNINGS BELOW. THE MERGED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO SE EARLY SUN THEN STALL ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA MON WITH FRESH NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT S OF 26N. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AMZ111...AMZ113 SUN AND AMZ 115 SUN NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY/COBB