000 AGXX40 KNHC 121801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE TX COASTAL BEND WHERE A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS DEVELOPING...WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FURTHER SW GOING FURTHER INLAND NE MEXICO TO 25N99W. A RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE NW BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE LOW PRES IS EXPECTED ADVANCE RAPIDLY E ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TONIGHT DRAGGING THE FRONTAL SEGMENT TO THE SOUTH EASTWARD AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE CENTRAL GULF AT MIDDAY WED...AND STALLING OVER THE SE WATERS LATE THU. THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL MAX AT 25 KT OVER THE SW GULF AND ABOUT 20 KT ELSEWHERE. A SECOND REINFORCING NORTHERLY SURGE INITIALLY AT 20-25 KT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN WATERS AROUND SUNRISE SAT...AND RACE S ABSORBING THE REMNANTS OF THE INITIAL FRONT AROUND SUNSET SAT...WITH THE MERGED BOUNDARY MOVING S OF THE AREA ON SAT EVENING. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT OVER THE W-CENTRAL WATERS MIDDAY SAT...AND INCREASE TO A BRIEF MINIMAL GALE EVENT SAT EVENING OVER THE SW GULF. WINDS WILL QUICKLY CLOCK TO SE OVER THE NW GULF ON SUN AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON SUN NIGHT...WITH E TO SE WINDS AT 15-20 KT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BLENDED LATEST GFS...UKMET AND ECMWF INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR GRIDS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 31N58W RIDGES SW TO THE SE FL COAST WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED OVER THE EXTREME NW WATERS JUST OFF THE GA/FL COAST. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY S AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STALL AGAIN THIS EVENING FROM ROUGHLY 31N72W TO 31N81W. AS A CURRENTLY DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER E TX RACES E ACROSS SOUTHERN GA TONIGHT...THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT AND QUICKLY LIFT N OF THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT OFF THE GA/FL COAST WED AFTERNOON. THIS COLD FRONT...THOUGH INITIALLY STRONG...WILL SLOW FROM 31N72W TO SE FL MIDDAY THU...DRIFT SE ON THU NIGHT...THEN FURTHER WEAKEN AND MEANDER FRI INTO EARLY SAT. A STRONG REINFORCING COLD FRONT... ACCOMPANIED BY NW-N 25-30 KT WINDS WILL ARRIVE AT THE GA/FL COAST LATE SAT MORNING...AND RAPIDLY OVERTAKE THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAKENING FRONT SAT NIGHT. EXPECT THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO REACH MINIMAL GALE OVER THE WATERS N OF 29N IN AMZ111 AND AMZ113 ON SAT NIGHT. NOTING THAT THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH THE NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW BEHIND THIS STRONG COLD FRONT...BUT THE UKMET AND ECMWF ALSO BOTH SUGGEST MINIMAL GALE AS WELL. THE MERGED COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA AROUND SUNRISE SUN...FROM 31N58W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUNSET SUN...AND BEGIN TO STALL FROM 29N55W TO HISPANIOLA LATE SUN NIGHT. BLENDED LATEST GFS...UKMET AND ECMWF INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR GRIDS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N55W TO 17N62W TO 16N70W ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LONG PERIOD NW TO N SWELLS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE S ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...REACHING THE N COAST OF S AMERICA EARLY WED....THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON THU. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON THU...THEN MEANDER THROUGH EARLY SAT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE INITIAL FRONT ON SAT EVENING WITH THE MERGED COLD FRONT REACHING FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO E HONDURAS LATE SUN...AND FROM HISPANIOLA TO NE NICARAGUA ON SUN NIGHT. BLENDED LATEST GFS...UKMET AND ECMWF INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR GRIDS. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED GMZ023 SAT NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AMZ111 AND AMZ115 SAT NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON