000 AGXX40 KNHC 111830 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST MON FEB 11 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THROUGH TUE. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...THEN MOVE RAPIDLY NE ACROSS THE SE U.S. AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO SW GULF WED...THEN BECOME STATIONARY OR MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF THU AND FRI...THEN DISSIPATE SAT. WINDS AND SEAS N OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO 25 KT OR LESS...WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS THU AND FRI...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. GFS MODEL SHOWS A FRESH SURGE OF COLD AIR AND STRONG HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT REACHING THE TEXAS COAST SAT...BRINGING STRONG TO NEAR-GALE N WINDS TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF BY LATE SAT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER E OF THE REGION INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TUE NIGHT AND WED N OF 28N W OF 75W AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING RAPIDLY NE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE SW ATLC BY WED EVENING...EXTEND FROM 31N74W TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA THU...STALL AND WEAKEN OVER FORECAST WATERS LATE THU AND FRI AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N72W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...THEN DISSIPATE SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH FRI...WHILE FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. LONG PERIOD NW TO N SWELLS GENERATED BY STRONG WINTER STORM N OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO REACH CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL N ATLC LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 65W THROUGH WED. SEA HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT N OF THE AREA DIMINISHES. TRADE WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE FRI AND SAT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC AS HIGH PRES BUILDS WESTWARD ALONG 28N IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL