000 AGXX40 KNHC 101920 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH S-SE WINDS IN THE REGION. SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE HIGHEST WINDS ARE N OF 27N E OF 91W. A LOW PRES SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT THEN STALL OVER NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH TUE. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY WED...AND MOVE NE ACROSS THE SE U.S. WHILE PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE GULF...EXTENDING FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO 24N90W TO SW GULF WED...WEAKEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF THU...THEN PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION FRI UNDER A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR. GFS AND ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS N-NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WELL BELOW GALE FORCE...BUT WINDS TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE VERACRUZ COAST WED AND THU WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT N OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... BROAD HIGH PRES N OF THE REGION IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 13-17N BETWEEN 73-77W. AN ASCAT PASS AT 0240 UTC SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS IN THESE TWO AREAS OF ENHANCED NE WIND FLOW. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU...ALLOWING MAXIMUM SEAS CURRENTLY AT 8 FT TO GRADUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 10-11 FT BY WED. SEAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT E OF 75W...AND 2-3 FT W OF 75W. OTHER EXCEPTIONS ARE A POCKET OF 5-7 FT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC DUE TO A LINGERING N-NE SWELL COMPONENT THERE...AND 4-6 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND S PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN. A BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW TO N SWELLS WILL REACH THE NE CARIBBEAN ATLC PASSAGES AND NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON EVENING AND PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH WED AND INTO NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WED THROUGH FRI. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... SOUTHERN PORTION OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N55W TO THE SE BAHAMAS IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS. AN ASCAT PASS AT 0105 UTC SHOWED FRESH NW WINDS N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT TO 70W. BUOY DATA AT 27.5N71.5W AND 27.5N 63W INDICATED COMBINED SEAS ARE 10-12 FT ACROSS NE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SE OVER THE REGION...BUT SEAS WILL CONTINUE INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MON EVENING FROM RESIDUAL SWELL. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TUE NIGHT AND WED OVER THE NW PORTION AHEAD OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING NE ACROSS THE SE U.S. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA COAST WED AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N66W TO S FLORIDA BY LATE THU. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT N OF THE FRONT THU WITH WEAK HIGH PRES JUST N OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT N OF 29-30N W OF 75W THU WITH STRENGTHENING SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE FRONT FRI. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL