000 AGXX40 KNHC 100758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 AM EST SUN FEB 10 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES MOVING ESE IS ANALYZED OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE GULF...WHILE PRES ARE LOWERING OVER THE MIDDLE AND WRN PORTIONS. THE LATEST BUOY/PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE SE TO S AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WRN PORTION N OF 25N...AND OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF WHERE THE 0244 UTC ASCAT PASS PICKED UP ON THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER...E-SE AT 10-15 KT. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEA HEIGHTS IN THE RANGE OF 2-3 FT IN THE E GULF...4-5 FT IN THE MIDDLE GULF AND 5-6 FT IN THE WRN...EXCEPT FOR 2-3 FT IN THE FAR NW AND SW PORTIONS. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE HIGH CONTINUING TO MOVE ESE TO E OF THE GULF BY MON EVENING WHILE WEAKENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING PER GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AS LITTLE INITIAL PUSH IS EXPECTED. FOLLOWING GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET AND SIMILAR THINKING TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR FRONTAL POSITIONS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDING THE MANUAL WINDWARD GRAPHICS OUT THROUGH 72 HOURS. BASED ON THIS WILL FORECAST FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR NRN WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. THE MODELS THEN DEPICT LOW PRES THAT FORMS ALONG THE FRONT ON TUE IN THE FAR NW GULF NEAR THE NE TEXAS/SW LOUISIANA COASTS. THIS LOW THEN QUICKLY TRACKS NEWD ACROSS SE LOUISIANA BY TUE EVENING AND TO ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA THROUGH WED. THE LOW WILL DRAG THE STATIONARY FRONT SEWD AS A COLD FRONT INTO EARLY WED AT WHICH TIME IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH A POSITION FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA TO 24N90W TO SW GULF. WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FURTHER NE WELL AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING WED AND AT THE SAME TIME WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS LIFTING NE...THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE SE AND S SECTIONS OF THE GULF THU WITH WEAK HIGH IN ITS WAKE BUILDING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW-N AT 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED ...BUT BE N-NE IN DIRECTION IN THE SW GULF. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5-7 FT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS THEN DIMINISH BEGINNING LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT STARTS TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE SE AND S GULF ZONES. BY LATE WED NIGHT AND THU WINDS DIMINISH TO N-NE 10-15 KT MOST ZONES...EXCEPT FOR NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CENTRAL PORTION. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W...A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 0240 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED LIGHT NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT IN THE WRN PORTION. THE 0100 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED NE-E 10-15 KT WINDS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PORTION...AND ACROSS THE FAR WRN TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W. THIS GRADIENT WILL LAST THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR COMBINED SEAS CURRENTLY AT 8 FT TO GRADUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 10 OR 11 FT BY WED. SEAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT E OF 75W...AND 2-3 FT W OF 75W. OTHER EXCEPTIONS ARE A POCKET OF 5-7 FT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC DUE TO A LINGERING N-NE SWELL COMPONENT THERE...AND 4-6 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND S PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR SRN ATLC WATERS IS RESULTING IN NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN MON INTO TUE ALLOWING FOR THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT. A BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW TO N SWELLS IS FORECAST BY THE WWIII MODEL GUIDANCE TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NE CARIBBEAN ATLC PASSAGES AND NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON EVENING BRINGING COMBINED SEA STATE THERE OF 9-12 FT. THESE SWELLS THEN CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SE ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL N ATLC TUE AND WED AS WELL THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TO THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION. THE SWELLS SLOWLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE WED AFTERNOON INTO THU. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE PRELIMINARY 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH (SECONDARY SURGE) THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 27N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS IS BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT THAT IS WEAKENING FROM 25N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALONG AND WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THE 0244 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED NE 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE FRONT W OF 72W AND SIMILAR WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SEAS OF 8-14 FT IN NW TO N SWELLS ARE NW OF THE POST- FRONTAL TROUGH E OF 73W PER BUOY DATA IN THE AREA...AND REPORTS FROM THOSE N OF 31N. MODELS IN VERY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE FAR SE WATERS THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES FROM THE MID-ATLC REGION BUILDS SE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE INTENSIFYING. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD MON AND TUE WHILE WEAKENING ALLOWING FOR SLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE NW WATERS AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT. THIS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-30 KT WED...AS LOW PRES ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT QUICKLY TRACKS NE ACROSS GEORGIA AND DEEPENS. EXPECT SEAS TO RAPIDLY BUILD TO 8 FT IN THE NW PORTION ON WED WITH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT LOW PRES/FRONTAL SYSTEM TO LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SAME NW WATERS LATE TUE AND WED. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PUSH OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE WED AFTERNOON OR EARLY WED EVENING ...AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES A POSITION FROM NEAR 31N66W TO NW BAHAMAS TO S FLORIDA BY THU EVENING USING GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE N OF THE FRONT ON THU WITH WEAK HIGH PRES FORECAST TO BE JUST N OF THE AREA. THE 8-14 FT SEAS OVER THE NE PORTION ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 7-10 FT BY LATE MON...TO 5-6 FT TUE AND TO 4-5 FT WED...BUT BUILD TO 8 FT THU WITH THE SW FLOW OF 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE I BLENDED LATEST GFS MODEL SOLN INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE