000 AGXX40 KNHC 090744 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 AM EST SAT FEB 09 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO NEAR 24N88W. HIGH PRES HAS TAKEN CONTROL OF THE AREA FOR THE TIME BEING. THE LATEST BUOY/PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT N-NE WINDS E OF 90W...AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS W OF 90W. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEA HEIGHTS IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT...WITH LOWER SEAS OF 2 FT IN THE NE GULF ZONE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS FORECAST THE HIGH PRES AREA TO BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUN ALLOWING THE LIGHT NE-E WINDS OVER THE NW GULF TO VEER TO THE SE AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT...AND EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH SUN THESE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN THE FAR NRN PORTION NEAR THE COAST SUN...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT SUN NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST ON SUN EVENING PER MODEL CONSENSUS. MODELS ALSO ON THE SAME PAGE WITH RESPECT TO THIS FRONT BEING ON THE WEAK SIDE AS LITTLE INITIAL PUSH IS EXPECTED. FOLLOWING GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF AND SIMILAR THINKING TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS WILL DEVIATE VERY LITTLE WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL PSNS ACROSS THE GULF FOR DAYS 3-5. BASED ON THIS WILL FORECAST FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR NRN WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. THE MODELS THEN DEPICT THAT STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS THE WRN GULF TUE PRODUCING A NORTHERLY SURGE THAT PUSHES THE FRONT EASTWARD ON TUE AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT MON ...BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE TUE AND WED AS OFFSHORE FLOW UNDER THE STRONGER HIGH PRES THAT KICKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT TO FILTER OVER THE WRN AND CENTRAL BY EARLY WED AS THE FRONT REACHES A PSN FROM NE FLORIDA SW TO 25N89W TO ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE FRONT THEN WEAKENS AS IT PUSHES SE TO THE FAR SE WATERS BY LATE WED AS HIGH PRES IN ITS WAKE ALSO WEAKENS. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGHOUT FROM THE N-NE 15-20 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF AND MOST OF THE CENTRAL ZONES...AND TO NE 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WRN ZONES. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD AROUND 8 OR 9 FT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE WRN GULF EARLY WED...BUT THEN SUBSIDE THERE TO AROUND 6 FT BY LATE WED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 0302 UTC LAST INDICATED LIGHT NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE N CENTRAL PORTION. THE 0122 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED NE-E 10-15 KT WINDS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PORTION...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SECTION S OF 17N E OF 57W WHERE NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS WERE CAPTURED. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W. THIS GRADIENT WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR COMBINED SEAS THERE TO FLUCTUATE FROM 7 TO 8 FT. SEAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT E OF 75W...AND 2-3 FT W OF 75W. OTHER EXCEPTIONS ARE A POCKET OF 5-7 FT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC DUE TO A NE SWELL COMPONENT THERE...AND 5-7 FT IN THE FAR S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. STRONG HIGH PRES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO TUE THE WRN ATLC WHILE INTENSIFYING...BUT ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD SEWD ACROSS THE FAR NRN CARIBBEAN. THE HIGH WILL THEN WEAKEN LATE TUE AND WED. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL BRING NE-E 20 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH MON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE VEERING TO THE SE. EXPECT NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE SUN AND INTO MON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT LATE MON AFTERNOON OR EARLY MON EVENING. A BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW TO N SWELLS IS FORECAST BY THE WAVEWATCH III MODEL GUIDANCE TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NE CARIBBEAN ATLC PASSAGES AND NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON EVENING BRINGING COMBINED SEA STATE THERE OF 9-12 FT. THESE SWELLS THEN CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SE ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL N ATLC TUE AND WED AS WELL THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TO THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE PRELIMINARY 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N68W SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE TO JUST S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 29N68W TO 23N74W. WEAK HIGH PRES IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE. THE 0126 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED W-NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT 28N AND W TO 74W. THESE WINDS ARE WITHIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SE-SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF ABOUT 29N. SEAS TO 10 FT ARE N OF 30N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 74W. MODELS IN GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH A PSN FROM 27N65W TO 24N69W...AS A DISSIPATING FRONT TO ERN CUBA BY EARLY TONIGHT...AND ALSO AS A DISSIPATING FRONT ACROSS THE FAR SE WATERS BY EARLY SUN EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD MON AND TUE WHILE WEAKENING ALLOWING FOR SE RETURN FLOW TO SET OVER THE NW WATERS AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT. THIS FLOW BECOMES SW AND INCREASES EVEN MORE...TO 20-25 KT WED...AS LOW PRES ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT QUICKLY TRACKS NE ACROSS GEORGIA AND DEEPENS. EXPECT SEAS TO RAPIDLY BUILD TO 8 FT IN THE NW PORTION ON WED WITH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT LOW PRES/FRONTAL SYSTEM TO LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SAME NW WATERS LATE TUE AND WED. LONG PERIOD NW-N SWELLS WILL MIGRATE SSE ACROSS THE AREA NE OF THE BAHAMAS PRODUCING MAX SEAS OF UP TO POSSIBLY 14 OR 15 FT N OF 29N E OF 73W TONIGHT AND SUN...AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 10 FT BY LATE MON...TO 6-8 FT TUE AND TO 4-6 FT WED. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE I BLENDED LATEST GFS MODEL SOLN INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE