000 AGXX40 KNHC 081732 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1230 PM EST FRI FEB 08 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR SARASOTA FLORIDA TO 24N90W WILL GLIDE SE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING S OF THE AREA SAT. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 25N85W. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL NEAR THE FRONT. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NW GULF TODAY...CURRENTLY REACHING FROM NEAR VERMILLION BAY LOUISIANA TO JUST SOUTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. BUOY AND PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MODERATE TO FRESH NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS DEPRIVING THE FRONT OF SUPPORT...AND IT IS EXPECTED MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTH AS IT SHIFTS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. E TO SE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE GULF BY LATE SAT S OF THE EXITING HIGH PRES AND AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRES AREA EMERGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 08/12 UTC GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE LATEST UKMET AND THE EARLIER RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWING 25 TO 30 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF 28N W OF 90W BY MIDDAY SUN. FORECAST IS A BLEND WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST...KEEPING MORE IN LINE WITH UKMET GUIDANCE. WINDS DIMINISH STARTING LATE SUN AS THE NEXT FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NW GULF WATERS. THE SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS LIFT NE INTO MON...AND AS WITH THE CURRENT FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF...THE NEXT FRONT IS NOT INITIALLY EXPECTED MAKE GREAT PROGRESS INTO THE GULF...AND MAINLY SAG INTO THE NW WATERS THROUGH MON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A REINFORCING IMPULSE TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE MON...REENERGIZING THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS BY LATE WED. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE OFF MEXICO FOR NOW. JET DYNAMICS ALOFT HINT OF CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF WITH THIS REINFORCEMENT...BUT MOISTURE LEVELS APPEAR LIMITED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... A 14 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20 KT WINDS OFF COLOMBIA WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE OFF COLOMBIA AS USUALLY WITH 20 TO 25 KT WINDS COMMENCING BY LATE SAT. GENTLE BREEZES IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL INCREASE LATE SAT INTO SUN AS WELL AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS. SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY MON WITH THE ENHANCED TRADES. IN ADDITION...N TO NE SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE ATLC PASSAGES AND THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS W OF 55W MON THROUGH MID WEEK. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT REACHING FROM 31N77W TO S OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA WILL PUSH SE AND EXTEND FROM 31N60W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE SAT...BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE ALONG 21N BY LATE SUN. STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED ON A 14 UTC ASCAT N OF 27N WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT. BUOY 41002 NEAR 32N75W INDICATED PEAK WINDS TO 31 KT AND GUSTS TO 37 KT AT 1645 UTC. W TO NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 28N ARE LIKELY 20 TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...BUT A RESURGENCE OF COOLER AIR WILL DELIVER 20 TO 25 KT WINDS N OF 29N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W ON SAT...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OFF THE CAROLINAS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS N OF THE BAHAMAS OFF NE FLORIDA RAPIDLY VEER SE TO S ON SUN...AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT MON INTO TUE...THEN 20 TO 25 KT WED AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT BOUNDARY EMERGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE WED. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN