000 AGXX40 KNHC 080800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 AM EST FRI FEB 08 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BOTH BUOY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE COLD FRONT MAKING HEADWAY ACROSS THE AREA FROM NE FLORIDA SW TO NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO 26N90W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 25N95W TO A WEAK LOW OF 1013 MB AT 21.5N96W. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH NWS RADAR ANIMATION ARE SHOWING A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TYPE FEATURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST N OF FORT MYERS WSW TO 26N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALONG THIS TROUGH. THE LATEST BUOY/PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WINDS W OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 88W...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR SE-S 10-15 KT WINDS S OF THE FRONT E OF 85W...AND E-SE WINDS OF 5-10 KT S OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 85W AND THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEA HEIGHTS OF 3-5 FT N OF THE COLD FRONT...AND 2-3 FT ELSEWHERE. ELSEWHERE. LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS...UKMET AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE CURRENT COLD FRONT POSITION AND RELATED WIND FIELD AROUND IT. WILL USE THIS GUIDANCE FOR COLD FRONT FORECAST POSITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AND THUS WILL FORECAST THE FRONT WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR FORT MYERS TO NEAR 25N89W BETWEEN 12Z-15Z THIS MORNING...AND AS A DISSIPATING BOUNDARY FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NW CUBA/YUCATAN CHANNEL VICINITY THIS EVENING WHILE IT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE. BY THEN E-SE FLOW OF 10-15 KT WILL HAVE ALREADY SET UP OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN AND CENTRAL GULF WHILE AT THE SAME TIME IT SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL OPEN THE WINDOW FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST AROUND EARLY SUN EVENING PER MODEL CONSENSUS ON THIS TIMING. MODELS ALSO ON THE SAME PAGE WITH RESPECT TO THIS FRONT BEING ON THE WEAK SIDE. WITH LITTLE PUSH EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR NRN WATERS LATE SUN AND MON. THE MODELS THEN DEPICT THAT STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS THE WRN GULF TUE PRODUCING A NORTHERLY SURGE THAT PUSHES THE FRONT EASTWARD ON TUE AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT MON AND TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 0142 UTC INDICATED NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER A PORTION OF THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND WRN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W. THIS GRADIENT WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR COMBINED SEAS THERE TO REACH ABOUT 8 FT. SEAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT E OF 79W...AND 2-3 FT W OF 79W. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS TO 8 FT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND 5-7 FT IN THE FAR S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE FROM NEAR NW CUBA TO THE YUCATAN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO BUILD S OVER THE THE NW AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MON BEFORE THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E LATER DURING MON AND TUE. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL BRING NE-E 20 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT LATE MON AND TUE WHILE VEERING TO THE SE. RESIDUAL...SLOWLY DECAYING NE SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT ARE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT ON SAT. HOWEVER...THE NEXT ROUND OF N TO NE SWELLS IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NRN ATLC PASSAGES LATE SUN NIGHT...AND THROUGH THE NE ATLC PASSAGES AND NRN TROPICAL N ATLC MON AND TUE. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE PRELIMINARY 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR 27N65W SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE 0142 UTC ASCAT PASS VIVIDLY DISPLAYED A SWATH OF SE-S 20-30 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W WITH THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS N OF 29N. STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST N OF THE AREA AS PROMPTED A GALE WARNING FOR WATERS N OF 31N FOR TODAY. THESE WINDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRES JUST OFFSHORE NRN S CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT TRAILS FROM THE LOW SW TO INLAND NE FLORIDA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH A PSN FROM NEAR 31N78W TO 29N81W AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...FROM NEAR 31N72W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE FRONT WILL THEN REACH THE FAR SE WATERS BY EARLY SAT EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SE OVER THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT FROM 25N55W TO HISPANIOLA ON SUN AS SE RETURN FLOW SETS OVER THE NW ATLC WATERS AND INCREASES AGAIN ON MON AND TUE. LONG PERIOD NW-N SWELLS WILL MIGRATE SSE ACROSS THE AREA NE OF THE BAHAMAS PRODUCING MAX SEAS OF UP TO POSSIBLY 14 OR 15 FT N OF 29N E OF 73W. BLENDED LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE